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As we transition into MLB DFS, I will start with a Trend of the Week in March, which will then become a Trend of the Day our writers will take turns putting together during the MLB Regular Season.

Trend: Plus/Minus Performance of “Splitty” Batters

We know DraftKings will typically boost batter prices when they are beginning a series at Coors Field. What other kinds of pricing rules might be part of their algorithm and what does it mean in terms of Plus/Minus? There are some batters whose wOBA raises over .100 points when facing a pitcher of the opposite handedness — is this accounted for in their pricing algorithm?

Let’s look at Chris Young, who last season posted an AVG of .327 against lefties and .182 against righties, making his overall batting average .252. Now, if he is priced as a .252 hitter and he is facing a lefty, he’s an obvious buy. But if his split is accounted for by pricing, there may not be enough value for us to exploit.

Before we setup a Trend, let’s look at a couple of specific players. There’s really no rhyme or reason to the players I picked, just a few batters I came up with off the top of my head with large splits:

Chris Young, 2015
wOBA vs L: .409
wOBA vs R: .259

Marlon Byrd, 2015
wOBA vs L: .347
wOBA vs R: .307

Charlie Blackmon, 2015
wOBA vs L: .311
wOBA vs R: .357

Josh Donaldson, 2015
wOBA vs L: .428
wOBA vs R: .390

Stephen Vogt, 2015
wOBA vs L: .279
wOBA vs R: .353

Using these players as a template, let’s setup the Trend to include players whose wOBA split is 0.035 or greater.

Step 1: Stat Split Filters > wOBA Diff > Set “0.035 to 2”

 

 

When these types of batters are on the favorable side of their split, they have typically scored 0.09 fantasy points above expectations per-player, per-game. Since the “Average Expected Pts” field is based on salary, we will be able to see if, in general, players are priced up or down based on their splits on DraftKings.

Step 2: Stat Split Filters > wOBA Diff > Set “-2 to -0.035”

 

 

Now, on the negative side of the split, batters have performed -0.16 fantasy points below expectations. Interestingly enough, the “Average Expected Pts” score of 7.14 is higher than in the previous result set. This implies that these 20,000 or so matches have actually cost slightly MORE when on the wrong end of their split.
What does this mean? One explanation would be that DraftKings raises a batter’s price when they are in a worse spot. That doesn’t make much sense logically and it’s probably not the case.

Another explanation is that DraftKings’ pricing algorithm is weighted toward recent performance. While a batter is on the wrong side of their split in “This” game, maybe they were on the right side of their split “Last” game. Based on the wOBA differences we saw above, if a player was on the right side of their split “Last” game, they probably exceeded expectations and in turn, the price may have jumped up.

Supporting this theory is the fact that the “Average Actual Pts” score of 7.14 from the first query matches the “Average Expected Pts” score from the second query exactly over ~20,000 results. In other words, a player’s salary on the wrong side of the split matches exactly with the implied salary based on actual points scored on the right side of the split.

Before we go, let’s revisit the players I listed in the introduction. If there were any player who should have been priced differently based on whether the opposing pitcher was a righty or lefty, it probably should have been Chris Young, due to his massive .150 differential. Let’s setup a Trend to look at his individual performance.

Step 3: Remove previous filters

Step 4: Player Filters > Player Name > Select “Chris Young”

Step 5: Player Filters > Opp Pitcher Throws > Select “L”

 

 

Step 6: Player Filters > Opp Pitcher Throws > Select “R”

 

 

Here, we can see that even in one of the most extreme examples, Chris Young was priced nearly identically against righties and lefties on DraftKings. His Average Expected Pts based on salary was 6.40 against lefties and 6.39 against righties. Looking at actual production, there was a swing of nearly four fantasy points based on handedness of the opposing pitcher.

Conclusion

It doesn’t look like DraftKings put much weight on wOBA spits in their pricing algorithm last season. If anything, a batter’s price on the wrong side of the split was driven up by their strong performance when on the right side of it. DraftKings has been known to change their pricing conventions in the past, so this will be something to keep an eye on as we enter the 2016 season.