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With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers each weekday through an important trend, created with our free Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Underdog with a High Hard-Hit Rate and MPH Drop
Vincent Velasquez has won me some tournament money this season. He’s a hard thrower who’s capable of putting up big strikeout numbers. Also important is that especially at the beginning of the year he didn’t carry much name recognition. Now, though, people know who he is and often consider using him in all formats. The problem is that today his advanced data doesn’t look good — and he’s an underdog.
Let’s see how big of a hole that puts him in.
Step 1: Advanced Stats – Recent > HH Diff > 10 to 30
Velasquez has had an increase of 18 percent in the hard-hit category, not something likely to help his Plus/Minus.
Side note: Stud of the day, Max Scherzer, almost matches for this filter. His recent hard-hit rate is nine percentage points higher than his yearly rate.
This one metric puts us at a -4.96 Plus/Minus at FanDuel.
Step 2: Advanced Stats – Recent > Pitch Velocity Diff > -2 to 0
Velasquez’ hard fastball hasn’t been as hard recently (-0.9 miles per hour). In this scenario, it actually bumps the Plus/Minus up slightly.
Step 3: Vegas Filters > Moneyline > 100 to 200
In general, you don’t want to invest in underdog pitchers, especially on FanDuel.
This leaves us with a -5.92 Plus/Minus at FanDuel.
Results
As tempted as I always am to get some tournament exposure to Velasquez’ strikeout potential, I’m going to need to pass today.
