At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Today’s Coors Pitchers
Today’s Coors pitchers? I know what you’re thinking, “Have you drunk too many Coors Lights this morning, Kelly?”
Since I concentrate on tournaments, the first thing I look at on a Coors slate is the starting pitchers — but not to stack against them. Instead, I want to see if they can be intelligent contrarian options.
The first thing that struck me when researching today was that both starting pitchers are facing teams with relatively low (for Coors Field) implied Vegas runs totals. Then I noticed how similar both pitchers’ year-long advanced data is.
So let’s see if we can find a diamond in the beer rough tonight.
Step 1: Trends > Vegas Filters > Opp Runs > 4.9 to 6.3
Normally these types of implied opponent totals aren’t great, but for Coors they might be good enough. Is it?
That -4.33 Plus/Minus on FanDuel isn’t good, but we might be able to make it better.
Step 2: Adv Stats – Year > GB% – Season > 40% to 49%
Neither pitcher has a ground ball percentage above 50 percent, which I normally look for, but they are both above 40 percent.
Adding in our GB% filter actually makes our Plus/Minus even worse, dropping it to -5.09. Not looking too good so far.
Step 3: Adv Stats > HH% – Season > 30% to 35%
Each pitcher has a year-long hard-hit percentage of 33 percent. Again, not something I’d normally target, but at least it’s under 35 percent.
Adding in the HH% filter actually trims a bit of fat from our negative Plus/Minus.
Step 4: Trends > K Prediction > 5.6 to 7.4
Each pitcher is predicted by us to have more than 5.5 but fewer than 7.5 strikeouts tonight.
Adding in the K Prediction filter gets us much closer to a baseline Plus/Minus. And note that the Consistency is actually on the good side of 50 percent. That’s not horrible.
Step 5: Team Filters > Stadium > Coors Field
Mind. Officially. Blown. Comparable pitchers at Coors Field have produced a delicious +5.30 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with amazing 76.5 percent Consistency.
The count is only 17, but given the low tournament ownership that generally accompanies Coors pitchers, who wouldn’t be willing to use these pitchers in a couple lineups based on this trend?
Past Results
Since we designed this trend specifically to fit today’s Coors Field starting pitchers, both Jon Gray and Julio Teheran match it.
More intriguing are the past results. In four starts this season, Jon Gray has matched this trend. In those starts, he has provided a massive +15.38 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with 100 percent Consistency.
This Coors is for you.
