At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.

With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.

MLB Trend of the Day: Strikeout Pitchers Who Keep the Ball on the Ground

Growing up in the ’90s and being born in Atlanta, I’ve rooted for Greg Maddux my whole life. Here was a pitcher who dominated without an overpowering strikeout pitch and with mid-90s heat — velocity that I could’ve obtained if my father hadn’t imperiously vetoed my decision to take steroids in middle school. I could go on and on about why he (Maddux, not my father) is the greatest pitcher of my generation, but I’m far too lazy to write a 10,000-word article. [Editor’s Note: And I’m too busy to edit it.]

Rather, I want to point out an underrated aspect of Maddux that made him great: The ability to induce groundballs.

Why Should We Care About Groundballs?

Even the drunken, disheveled little-league baseball coach knows to tell his pitchers to keep the ball down. Producing groundballs puts the defense in a great position to record easy outs, and it limits home runs at the same time. Maddux was superior at this skill.

Any drunken, disheveled DFS player should also know the importance of producing groundballs. With our advanced statistics, we can backtest the production of groundball pitchers to prove that they are superior to fly-ball pitchers.

As a short exercise — and it’s the only kind of exercise I’ve gotten recently besides eating — I’ve compiled a list of every pitcher who had a groundball rate greater than 50 percent last season:

 

These pitchers produced a Plus/Minus of +1.86 with a Consistency of 55.4 percent. Not too shabby. Using our Trends tool again, we can compare this groundball cohort to the top fly-ball pitchers from last season:

 

The top flyball pitchers produced a Plus/Minus of +0.73 with a Consistency of 52.9 percent. Weak.

Hurrying Up with the Trend of the Day

Alright, we get it. Greg Maddux is the greatest pitcher in the history of baseball and nobody will ever come close to matching his success. Groundball pitchers provide DFS value that is potentially overlooked.

To leverage this knowledge, we can utilize our advanced stats to create a trend that produces positive results.

First, I want to narrow the pitcher pool by incorporating my favorite strategy when selecting a pitcher: Paying up.

Step 1: Player Filter > Salary > 10,000 to 13,700

 

I stress the importance of paying up for pitching in every podcast and every article. Don’t be cheap. The importance of selecting a pitcher in MLB DFS is comparable to that of choosing the most comfortable pair of sweatpants that we, as DFS players, wear a minimum of five days a week. [Editor’s Note: I prefer Star Wars pajama bottoms, but whatever.]

Now it’s time to add the groundball effect to our expensive pitchers.

Step 2: Adv Stats – Recent > GB % – 15 > 50 to 86

 

Pitchers who A) are priced no lower than $10,000 and B) induce groundballs at no less than a 50 percent rate over their previous 15 days historically produce 3.34 points above expectation.

This is good and all, but what if we want to do better? If you have been listening to any of the recent MLB Daily Fantasy Flex podcasts, you know that we have been hyping the great K Predictor in our Player Models. What if we added a devastating strikeout pitch to Greg Maddux’s repertoire?

That’s a trick question: Baseball wouldn’t exist today because every batter would’ve struck out and the sport would’ve 100 percent died and never come back.

Let’s Bring This Bad Boy Home

Using our K Predictor, we can set the parameter to include only pitchers who are projected to strikeout seven or more batters.

Step 3 > Trends > K Prediction > 7 to 10.6

 

OMFG! [Editor’s Note: Oh my freckled giraffe! (Obviously.)]

Every morning when I wake up, before I start any research and even before I eat Fruity Pebbles, I bow down to the K Predictor. The power it holds is so strong that it can predict other things in life as well. I personally use it to predict which character in Game of Thrones will die and it has yet to fail me. [Editor’s Note: What is dead may never die.]

Using this trend, we can see that groundball pitchers expected to strike out opposing batters have historically produced a Plus/Minus of +6.27. This is what we like to call a positive trend.

Now, to make this an actionable trend, let’s see if there are any pitchers who fit the criteria on Wednesday.

Johnny Beisbol

Only one pitcher has the skills and Instagram account required to match this trend: Johnny Cueto.

Good Luck!