At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Salary Decrease With a Positive wOBA Differential and HH% Increase
Paying attention to salary changes can be an efficient and underutilized way of finding value for DFS contests. Luckily, we make it easy for you to keep track of this by updating both monthly and annual salary changes in our Models on a daily basis.
Today, we will combine a salary decrease with increases in other areas for hitters, namely a positive wOBA differential and an increase in recent hard-hit percentage. Let’s see what kind of effect this will have on batters’ Plus/Minus and Consistency on FanDuel.
Step 1: Trends > Fantasy Month Filters > Month Salary Change > -2304 to -300
Setting the minimum monthly salary decrease at $300 is a great start. That alone provides a Plus/Minus increase of +0.42 over the baseline batter on FanDuel. The salary decrease also provides a 2.2 percent increase in Consistency.
Now let’s give these guys a positive wOBA differential of at least +0.05.
Step 2: Stat Split Filters > wOBA Diff > 0.05 to 0.655
A positive wOBA split — meaning the batter’s wOBA against the handedness of the pitcher he is facing is greater than his wOBA against the handedness of the pitcher he is not facing — bumps the Plus/Minus up by +0.09. Nothing earth-shattering, but an improvement nonetheless.
Next we are going to target players whose 15-day hard-hit percentage has increased by at least five points. I think targeting players whose advanced data is on the rise while their salary is on the decline could potentially be a profitable endeavor.
Step 3: Adv Stats – Recent > HH Diff > 5 to 33
Yahtzee! Now we are cooking with propane. Batters who have at least a five-point increase in their recent hard-hit percentage to accompany their positive wOBA differential and salary decrease have historically provided a +2.18 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with exactly 50.0 percent Consistency.
Earlier this month, Christian Yelich dropped a 41.4-point FD game in this spot, and Matt Carpenter and Justin Bour have both had 50-plus point games this season while matching this trend.
Current Matches
There are six matches for this trend today, five of them projected to start.
Chris Davis, projected to hit fourth for Baltimore today is currently ranked fifth in the Bales Model.
In Philadelphia, Odubel Herrera and Freddy Galvis also match, and as home underdogs with a low total tonight, they could be the center of an intriguing contrarian Phillies stack for large tournaments.
