At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Pitchers With Good Advanced Stats but a High-Implied Total
Call me crazy, but it would stand to reason that pitchers who are in excellent recent form, keeping the ball on the ground, and not giving up a ton of hard hits should perform well no matter what.
But what about when Vegas says the pitchers’ opponents will score more than four runs? Does recent form even matter when a pitcher is pegged by Vegas to be giving up a healthy total of runs? If recent form does matter, and you can roster a profitable pitcher that everyone else is avoiding because of what Vegas implies, would it still be worth the risk?
Let’s find out.
Step 1: Trends > Adv Stats – Recent > GB % – 15 > 62 to 72
I’m setting the range in “Adv Stats – Recent” for ground-ball percentage in the past 15 days at 62 to 72 percent. Historically, pitchers who keep the ball on the ground in comparable fashion have yielded a +3.05 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with 56.3 percent Consistency.
Step 2: Adv Stats – Recent > HH % – 15 > 19 to 29
Adding in a recent hard-hit percentage between 19 to 29 percent filter to our existing trend adjusts the Plus/Minus down to a still-desirable +2.85 mark on FanDuel.
Step 3: Vegas Filters > Opp Runs > 4.1 and Higher
Now for the real kicker: Let’s put these pitchers head-to-head against Vegas. Even when Vegas implies a pitcher will give up more than four runs, pitchers in comparable recent form have accrued a +2.28 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with a decent 56.6 percent Consistency mark.
Current Matches
Today’s only match is Colorado’s Jorge De La Rosa pitching at Dodger Stadium.
After creating this trend, if you click on the Past Results tab, you’ll see De La Rosa has matched this trend three times previously. He exceeded his salary-based expectations two of the three occasions, with an average Plus/Minus of +10.09 in those games.
