At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our “Trend of the Day” series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Model tools.
MLB Trend of the Day: Pitchers Who Are Favorites With a Below-Average K/9
I think there is a common strategy in targeting pitchers who are favorites when building a cash-game lineup, and targeting strikeouts when building a tournament lineup. I would prefer to target both, but I do view strikeouts as king and Vegas as a close second. Because of this, I am likely to overlook a pitcher who is a Vegas favorite but has a below-average K/9. Can being on a heavy favorite trump the low K upside? Luckily for us, we can head to the Trends tool to see how those pitchers have performed in the past.
Step 1: Stat Filters > SO Per 9 > “0 to 6.9”
As expected, pitchers who average less than seven strikeouts per nine innings have a negative Plus/Minus. The ability to strike batters out is a direct indicator of upside and a main source of fantasy points for pitchers, so the putrid -1.26 Plus/Minus is not surprising. Now, let’s take a look at how these players perform when they are favorites to win.
Step 2: Vegas Filters > Favorite / Dog > Select “Favorite”
We see over a two-point difference between favorites and underdogs as we break into a positive expectation with our low-strikeout pitchers. Still, a Plus/Minus of +0.24 is no reason to feel much better about rostering a player in this situation. The count is large enough where we can add another filter, so let’s take a look at players who are on teams that are at least -150 to win.
Step 3: Vegas Filters > Moneyline > “-273 to -150”
We are left with a Plus/Minus of +1.42 points, which isn’t too bad. Still, it is far from enough to warrant rostering these guys, but it is enough for me to at least open my eyes to them. It seems being on a team that is a heavy favorite is able to trump the negative expectation that comes with low strikeout upside. To give this trend context, here is how our Trend of the Day matches up against pitchers who are on teams that are at least -150 to win, with no additional filters.
Solely being on a team that is at least -150 to win is a positive spot for pitchers, and having a low K/9 will decrease the trend’s expectation by -0.66 points on average. Strikeouts are still king, but it does seem that these low K pitchers are at least worth a closer look when their matchup is favorable.
Our only current match for tonight is Adam Wainwright, who is set to take the mound against the Phillies tonight. The Phillies have allowed opposing pitchers to score an average of +2.60 points above their salary-based expectation this season, so I understand the appeal to grab some Wainwright exposure. Personally, I am still undecided, but I will give him a closer look, specifically on FanDuel where his 87% Bargain Rating makes him a more enticing option there than he is on DraftKings.
Good luck tonight!
