At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Low-WHIP Pitchers at Coors Field
The Main MLB slate tonight is only five games, and one of them is at Coors Field. That essentially eliminates two pitchers from our player pool — or does it? This trend will look specifically at Zack Greinke and how pitchers like him — low-WHIP pitchers — have performed at Coors Field.
Step 1: Stat Filters > Starter WHIP > .80 to .99
This WHIP range screens for elite pitchers, evidenced by the cohort’s nice +1.77 Plus/Minus at DraftKings.
Now let’s add the killer step: Pitchers at Coors Field.
Step 2: Team Filters > Stadium > Coors Field
Ouch.
Three things stand out here. First, our count is very low: Only 14 pitchers in our database have come into Coors Field with such a great WHIP. Second, even with that impressive mark, these pitchers have really struggled when we look at Plus/Minus.
But here’s the third thing . . .
Although our pitchers have recorded a -3.66 Plus/Minus overall, they have also hit their salary-based expectations in half of their contests. So they have a low Plus/Minus but a relatively high Consistency. How is that possible?
Whereas Plus/Minus is a nuanced metric constructed along a continuum, Consistency is a yes/no metric. In this case, half of our pitching sample hit the salary-based expectations. And the other half really missed the mark.
WHIP It Good
Because of the 50 percent Consistency, Greinke deserves some real consideration tonight. He will likely be much lower-owned than he would be on a normal day, and if you can roster a pitcher in tournaments who A) is very low-owned and B) actually has an implied 50 percent chance of hitting expectation (if we believe this trend), then you just might have an incredible, albeit very risky, edge.
