At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best daily fantasy sports tools and data available. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.

With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers each weekday through an important trend, created with our FREE Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.

MLB Trend of the Day: If You’re Going to Steal, Make It Worth It

In my youth, I may have been known to find myself in trouble. While my personal favorite activity was splattering cars with water balloons filled with chocolate syrup, I also had a regrettable stretch of the sticky fingers. And, no, I’m not talking about from all the candy I ate.

One incident in particular stands out to me years later. I’ll spare you the minor details, but I tried to swipe a T-shirt from Zumiez that was on sale for $9. My friends ran away but I decided to walk and ended up getting caught. My laziness isn’t too surprising considering that I am writing this piece from bed at 11 AM.

After my pops resentfully arrived to release me from police custody, our conversation went something like this:

Young Bad-*$$ Jay: “Sorry man.”
Pops: “Nine dollars?!?!”
Young Bad-*$$ Jay: “Word.”
Pops: “WHY WOULD YOU WASTE THIS CHARGE ON NINE DOLLARS?! DON’T YOU KNOW ABOUT THE DIFFERENT TIERS FOR PETTY THEFT AND MISDEMEANORS?? YOU COULD HAVE STOLEN AN ITEM WORTH MORE VALUE AND BEEN IN THE EXACT SAME AMOUNT OF TROUBLE, YOU WORTHLESS BUFFOON! IF YOU’RE GOING TO STEAL, MAKE IT WORTH IT!”

Needless to say, I became well-versed in Colorado Statutes for theft, although now the only items I steal are red shells from my opponents via a ghost in Mario Kart.

Here’s the point: When stealing, get your money’s worth. If you’re going to spend up on a player with base-stealing potential, make sure you are getting the most out of it.

Maximizing Theft

Stolen bases in MLB DFS are valuable but often difficult to predict. This trend will attempt to narrow down the likelihood of a hitter committing a theft on the base path. In creating this trend, I have selected for players with the highest likelihood of stealing and put them against the teams that allow the most steals.

For an unparalleled DFS edge akin to thievery, try our free Trends tool, where you can access our massive database of advanced data and leverage our premium exclusive metrics, such as Bargain Rating, Upside, Consistency, and Plus/Minus.

Step 1 > Time Filter > MLB Season > 2016

I don’t need to take a screenshot of this because it is boring and represents nothing but a barren wasteland.

Step 2 > Player Filters > Player Name > Top Stolen Base Players

 

[Editor’s Note: Jay couldn’t be bothered to capitalize the word “thieves.” For some reason, I just didn’t want you to miss that.] 

These speedsters perform well enough on their own, but what if we match them up with teams who have a problem throwing out base stealers?

Step 3 > Team Filters > Opposing Team > Top Teams in Stolen Bases Allowed

 

The top base stealers this season have a Plus/Minus of +2.68 when facing teams that allow the most steals. This could mean that good matchups for baserunners are not priced into site salaries.

We always want to pinpoint players in optimal situations and regularly target hitters against home-run prone pitchers, so it makes sense to target speedsters against catchers or pitchers who struggle to hold runners.

Is Sample Size an Issue?

That’s a good question. The answer is, “No.”

I went back into our Trends tool and ran the same trend for the stolen-base leaders matched up against teams allowing the most steals in 2015:

 

While the 2015 cohort isn’t as solid as the 2016 group, the sample size is significantly larger, which means that we shouldn’t write the trend off. It might seem very simple to play Billy Hamilton against Francisco Cervelli, for example, but sometimes the smallest edge can be overlooked by a large amount of DFS players.

Theft of the Night

In conclusion, when taking a risk involving theft, make sure that you are aware of the consequences and can reasonably expect to receive positive value.

Your optimal chances of registering a steal tonight will come from two players:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Melvin Upton

Good luck!