At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Hot Weather and Starting Pitchers
I live in Southwest Florida, so it’s almost always hot. But during July and August it turns stupid hot. Like melt-your-face-off hot. Open-the-front-door-at-eight-in-the-morning-and-sweat-your-*ss-off hot.
This time of year, the heat and humidity I live in also invades other parts of the country, so I figured that it was time to look at how the hot-and-sticky weather can affect starting pitchers.
Before we start adding filters, keep in mind that starting pitchers on FanDuel historically average a Plus/Minus of -0.06 and meet or exceed their salary-based expectations 50.1 percent of the time.
Step 1: Trends > Weather Details > Temperature > 76 and higher
I would love a 76-degree day here. I’d probably need to wear a jacket. But I understand that 76 degrees elsewhere can be considered hot, so we’ll start there.
Apparently, pitchers don’t like to sweat: Our Plus/Minus has already decreased to -1.20 on FanDuel, and the Consistency has dropped to 47.6 percent.
Step 2: Adv Stats – Year > FB % – Season > 30.1 and higher
How do pitchers do in these temperatures when their batted balls are at least 30 percent fly balls?
Not good. Or well. Whichever one of those words I should be using.
Step 3: Weather Details > Wind Speed > 5.1 MPH and higher
Since our fly-ball pitchers are already suffering in this hot air, let’s see what adding a little bit of wind does to the equation — perhaps a gentle breeze would cool them off.
Adjusting the wind speed to above five miles per hour really drops the hammer on these guys, bringing the Plus/Minus all the way down to -2.72 while further decreasing the Consistency.
Current Matches
There are seven starting pitchers who match this trend, including some higher-priced options like Jon Lester, Hisashi Iwakuma, Trevor Bauer, and the recently red-hot Collin McHugh.
This trend suggests that airing on the side of caution, fading these guys, and spending the money elsewhere might be a hot idea. [Writer’s Note: Can’t wait to see the Editor’s Note on that awful sentence.]
