At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.

With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers each weekday through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.

MLB Trend of the Day: High-Strikeout Underdog FanDuel Pitchers

In my Trend of the Day last week, I focused on FanDuel pitchers who throw a lot of innings (and win) and in yesterday’s Labyrinthian I wrote more on the subject.

If we are looking for winning pitchers on FD — and who isn’t doing that, really? — then we are served well by looking for pitchers who tend to throw a high number of innings per game.

But what if DFS players are overvaluing wins and favored pitchers on FD? What if, in chasing wins, DFSers are rostering “likely-to-win” pitchers in too many lineups in proportion to their odds of actually returning value, given the average Plus/Minus or Upside associated with such pitchers?

If that’s the case, then it’s also likely that underdog pitchers who might not win but who could still return value — and who (through unexpected victories) still have the potential to provide 12-point windfalls — could be rostered in too few lineups, thereby offering us an exploitable opportunity to practice ownership arbitrage.

With that in mind, let’s look at pitchers who aren’t favored to win but nevertheless could provide value on FD.

Step 1: Vegas Filters > Moneyline > 110 to 400

Ouch. No wonder underdog pitchers on FD are avoided like the plague.

But can we find a subsection of the underdog cohort that isn’t horrible? Perhaps we can find some value from pitchers projected (via our K Predictor) to be in the top quartile in strikeouts.

Step 2: Stat Filters > SO Prediction Pct > 75 to 100

Here are a few points:

1. I don’t want to pretend as if we’ve found a cohort of pitchers who are awesome. They aren’t. But they are a non-horrid part of a larger population of pitchers who suck, and as such they might be rostered in too few tournament lineups.
2. It’s very possible that strikeouts are valued less by DFS players on FD than they are on DK. In fact, with FD players chasing wins, it’s possible that they undervalue strikeouts more than they should.
3. In addition to accumulating strikeouts, these pitchers will sometimes (unexpectedly) win games, since Vegas isn’t correct with its odds 100 percent of the time. Thus, by targeting these pitchers who A) meet value more often than not (with a 50.4 percent Consistency mark), and B) have the underappreciated potential to collect wins, we might just find some Black Swans who help us take down some tournaments.

In today’s slate there are only two pitchers who match this trend.

Current Matches

Matt Harvey and Daniel Wright are both relatively uninspiring options in a slate that includes Stephen Strasburg, Chris Sale, and David Price.

Of course, the presence of vastly superior pitchers likely means that Harvey and Wright will be rostered in very few tournament lineups — and hopefully some of those lineups will be yours.

Good luck!