At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.

With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.

MLB Trend of the Day: High Strikeout Pitchers with a Recent Drop in Velocity

With so many different metrics at our disposable, it can be easy to fall into the habit of assuming that, because Player A has variable X working against him, he may be a suboptimal play. Luckily for our subscribers, we have the Trends tool available to us to test the validity of our assumptions.

One particular metric that I’ve leaned on at times is Pitch Velocity Differential, one of our advanced stats. If I see a pitcher with a drop in velocity over his past few starts I tend to shy away from him. But after noticing a few strong performances by pitchers with high strikeout rates and recent drops in velocity, I’m beginning to feel as if my reliance on this particular metric may be creating a bit of a blind spot.

So today I want to focus on declining-speed, high-strikeout pitchers in order to get the facts straight for myself.

Step 1: Adv Stats – Recent > Pitch Velocity Diff (Beta) > “-4.2 to -0.5”

 

The Plus/Minus of -0.80 supports the theory that, in general, a drop in velocity is suboptimal for a pitcher.

Let’s see how this trend shapes up when we isolate the high-strikeout pitchers.

Step 2: Stat Filters > SO Percentile > “85 to 99”

 

Well, that’s a drastic change. With a Plus/Minus of +2.48, this trend suggests that a drop in velocity isn’t nearly as worrisome for players with elite strikeout ability. [Editor’s Note: Brandon Hopper came to a similar conclusion in yesterday’s edition of On The Contrary, in which he (successfully) recommended James Shields, who struck out nine batters and allowed no runs in seven innings.]

In fact, if we compare this Plus/Minus to that of high-strikeout pitchers whose velocity hasn’t declined, the impact of velocity seems negligible. If I remove the Pitch Velocity Diff (Beta) filter, this same population — pitchers with a SO Percentile between 85-99 percent — has an average Plus/Minus of +2.43.

The Current Matches

And to wrap it up, here are today’s matches.

 

What to say about Sale and Tropeano? In general, a decline in velocity is a negative development for a pitcher. But if you like what Sale and Tropeano have going for them in their matchups, you probably shouldn’t let their velocity declines dissuade you from rostering them. Both of them are strong strikeout pitchers. Per this trend, their strikeout proficiency is what matters most.

The Takeaway

In the case of the high-strikeout pitchers, it seems as if a decline in velocity doesn’t negate their ability to rack up Ks.

Regardless of why this strikeout robustness exists — maybe these pitchers aren’t highly reliant on velocity to begin with, or maybe their “out” pitches aren’t their fastballs — the fact is that this trend indicates that perhaps a certain class of pitchers with declining velocity can be leveraged: Those with the elite strikeout Upside.

Now, pitchers whose velocities have declined recently should be examined closely before you roster them, since declining speed could potentially signal an issue with mechanics or an underlying injury. If, though, you determine that these pitchers are otherwise normal, then our results indicate that you should feel free to roster these pitchers as you otherwise would.

Good luck tonight!