At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our FREE Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
Can an elite strikeout pitcher overcome a matchup with an opponent that limits their strikeouts as a team? I’ve been curious about this for awhile now, so let’s dig into the topic for today’s Trend of the Day.
MLB Trend of the Day: High-Strikeout Pitchers with a Low K Prediction
Step 1: Stat Filters > SO Percentile > Set to “85 to 100”
You likely already knew that pitchers with high strikeout potential are positive, but the Plus/Minus of +2.11 offers us added confirmation. There’s a floor and ceiling associated with the pitchers that we just can’t often find with lower strikeout pitchers.
Step 2: Stat Filters > SO Percentile > Set to “4 to 75”
The results are mildly surprising to me. In general, I tend to side with the elite strikeout pitcher, believing their talent will tend to shine through. But as our results show, this isn’t necessarily the case, as the addition of the K Predictor filter dropped the Plus/Minus by -0.89 points.
The matches for the trend are a bit limited, consisting of Chris Archer, Robbie Ray and Michael Fulmer. You may want to temper expectations slightly if rostering any of the three today.
So our K Prediction appears to be quite important in terms of a high-strikeout pitcher’s potential fantasy output. But what about the opposite? Could it help us flush out value for low-strikeout pitchers? Let’s take a look.
Step 1a: Stat Filters > SO Percentile > Set to “0 to 75”
Step 2a: Stat Filters > SO Percentile > Set to “85 to 100”
The converse appears to be true, as the +1.98 Plus/Minus bump for this lower strikeout group of pitchers shows. There are a couple of matches for this trend today, with Felix Hernandez and Masahiro Tanaka fitting the bill.
So there you have it: A two-for-one trend today. The real takeaway from these trends should be the power of our K Prediction metric. By adding this single filter we’ve greatly reduced the potential of one population while boosting that of another. Including this metric in your daily research is essential and all of our subscribers should be doing so.
Good luck tonight!
