At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best daily fantasy sports tools and data available. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.

With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers each weekday through an important trend, created with our FREE Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.

MLB Trend of the Day: Finding Pitcher Value Without Strikeouts

When you pull up your Player Model and sort for tonight’s seven-game main slate, the first thing you’ll notice is that pitching is brutal. Whereas last night we had six pitchers with a K/9 rate above 10, tonight we don’t have even a single one. Nate Karns leads all pitchers in the slate with a K Prediction of 6.2, with Gio Gonzalez coming in second at 5.4. Bleh.

So what can we do? When we know that strikeouts aren’t in the cards, should we focus on WHIP? Or perhaps lean on Vegas run totals? Let’s run some trends and find out.

For an unparalleled DFS edge, try our free Trends tool, through which you can access our massive database of advanced data and leverage our premium exclusive metrics, such as Bargain Rating, Upside, Consistency, and Plus/Minus.

Step 1: Trends > K Prediction > 2.0 to 6.5

This first step narrows our results to match our data set: Pitchers with low strikeout potential. As you can see, strikeouts remain important in DFS contests.

 

Now let’s look at two other important factors: WHIP and the opposing Vegas implied run total.

Let’s start with WHIP. Most of the pitchers tonight are between 1.25 and 1.42, so let’s set our number at 1.38 (the green WHIP players in Player Models).

Step 2A: Stat Filters > Starter WHIP > 0 to 1.38

 

There’s not much here. Looking at WHIP as a deciding factor among pitchers tonight won’t lead to a ton of value. You might notice the large sample of the trend, indicating just how average and common our pitchers are tonight.

Let’s remove the Starter WHIP filter from the trend and now look at the Vegas totals.

Step 2B: Vegas Filters > Opp Runs > 2.3 to 4.2

 

Our Plus/Minus starts to dip into the negatives when we approach 4.0 implied runs for a pitcher’s opposition, but out of WHIP and Vegas totals the latter seems to be the lesser of two evils.

Plus/Minus and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.

As a quick bonus, I looked at two of our recent advanced stats — batted-ball distance and hard-hit rate — and neither were too helpful for these pitchers.

 

I believe this trend shows that, for average pitchers, you should be very matchup-oriented in your analysis. There is still a lot of value in WHIP and our advanced data, but don’t overthink it tonight: Take the best matchups and cross your fingers.

Good luck.