At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Favorites with Good Home Parks and K Potential
Ever since I read Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman‘s piece on the impact of Vegas moneylines on starting pitchers, I have been paying more attention to them, on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
For most slates there aren’t a ton of pitchers with -191 moneylines (the preferred starting point in Freedman’s piece), so for this Trend of the Day I’m lowering the desired moneyline to -150 and throwing in some peripherals to spice up our Plus/Minus and Consistency.
Step 1: Trends > Vegas Filters > Moneyline > -485 to -150
Well, that was pretty easy. Setting the moneyline at a minimum of -150 has already given us a +3.61 Plus/Minus with excellent 59.6 percent Consistency.
Step 2: Team Filters > Home/Visitor > Home
Let’s put our favored pitchers at home and see what kind of affect that has on their Plus/Minus values and Consistency.
Excellent. Home cooking adds +0.25 to the Plus/Minus and bumps up the Consistency to over 60 percent.
Step 3: Trends > Park Factor > 51 to 100
Our Park Factor metric measures the historic percentile rank of a ballpark’s hitter-friendliness, adjusted for handedness.
Let’s set the Park Factor at 51, so we’ll consider any park that has been even slightly favorable to pitchers.
Pretty sweet. Our Plus/Minus has now climbed above four, and we added a wee-bit more Consistency as well. Things are looking well. Or good. Whichever one of those words I should be using.
Step 4: Stat Filters > SO Per 9 > 7 to 17.561
Call me crazy, but I prefer a pitcher who can rack up a decent number of strikeouts. In this wacky world of expensive studs often getting shelled, I can at least cling to Ks as a reliable constant.
Awesome. Our Plus/Minus on FanDuel is now at +4.32 with an excellent 61.5 percent Consistency. In the above trend, 1,055 of 1,715 starting pitchers either met or exceeded their salary based expectations. That’s the kind of historical Consistency I’m willing to put some coinage on.
Current Matches
Jaime Garcia, Felix Hernandez, and Dallas Kuechel all currently match this trend. It’s possible, because of changing moneylines, that additional pitchers could match this trend later today or any of these players could no longer match, so keep your eyes open for that by checking out our Lineups page as we get closer to game time.
Garcia currently has a massive -240 moneyline, and there are 13 starters priced higher than him on FanDuel tonight, making him a very judicious play.
