At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.

With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Model tools.

MLB Trend of the Day: Favored Pitchers With Decreasing Velocity

Since the beginning of the 2016 season, I have been doing a lot of experimenting with our new advanced data. One especially important statistic available through this data is Velocity Differential, the difference between a pitcher’s recent average pitch velocity and his long-term velocity.

Today’s slate has several pitchers who have decreasing velocity. Of course, if a pitcher with negative Velocity Differential is in a favorable position, how much does the velocity matter?

We all know what happens when a question arises: We open the Trends tool and search for answers.

Step 1: Adv Stats Recent > Pitch Velocity Diff > “-73.9 to -1”

 

Setting this filter narrows our search to players who have seen at least a one mile-per-hour decrease in their average pitch speed over the past 15 days. As we can see, this has not been favorable for pitchers, as they have historically underperformed their salary-based expectations by -0.52 points.

Let’s add an additional filter to narrow this field to players who are also favorites in Vegas.

Step 2: Vegas Filters > Favorite / Dog > “Favorite”

 

It’s no surprise to see that favorites perform better than underdogs, but it does seem that having a decrease in velocity is still a negative, as pitchers who are favorites have a Plus/Minus of +1.11 and our trend is good for only +0.51.

Let’s take it one step further and look at pitchers who are at least -150 to win.

Step 3: Vegas Filters > Moneyline > “-275 to -150”

 

With our Trend complete, we are left with a count of 64, a Plus/Minus of 1.96 and a 64.1 percent Consistency. Let’s take a look at our current matches. 

Current Matches

 

Note that as the moneyline changes, players may fall out of, or come into this trend. As of now, only Jordan Zimmermann qualifies. With the trend complete, I don’t think that we found any reasons to fade a pitcher simply because he has a negative Velocity Differential, as long as he has other things going for him. It’s impressive that the trend’s Plus/Minus of +1.96 is only 0.06 points lower than the Plus/Minus for a trend identifying any pitcher who is at least -150 to win.

Zimmermann is an interesting play today and could make for a solid tournament option as a pivot away from some of the high-priced guys.

Good luck tonight!