At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Model tools.
MLB Trend of the Day: FanDuel Pitchers Who Throw a Lot of Innings (and Win)
One of my favorite FantasyLabs pieces last week was Jay Persson’s Trend of the Day in which he highlighted why we should pay attention to pitch counts. My piece here is somewhat inspired by Jay’s.
In general, the more pitches a starter throws, the more innings he is likely to complete. In turn, the more innings he throws, the further into the game he goes and the likelier it becomes that he picks up a win. And, on FanDuel, where pitchers are awarded with 12 points per win, we can’t afford not to take into account the odds that any given starter will be the winning pitcher.
I plan on writing a Labyrinthian on this topic — maybe even a few Labyrinthians, because I find the matter of pitcher wins to be very intriguing — but for this piece, I hope that it’s sufficient to say that after some preliminary research (using the excellent raw data available at Baseball-Reference.com) I believe that if we are chasing pitcher wins on FanDuel then the first pitchers we should look to roster will likely be those who throw a lot of innings per start.
One final note: In building a trend intended to target pitchers with elevated chances of winning, I believe that the goal is not explicitly to find pitchers who actually win their games. The goal is to find pitchers who have high Plus/Minus values. In using this trend, we are likelier to find pitchers who win than we would be if we employed some other, random trend. But our goal is not to find winning pitchers at any cost. The goal is to find pitchers who can help us win DFS contests.
Step 1: Stat Filters > IP > “6 to 9”
If a pitcher goes at least six innings, then he has a chance of having a quality start, a statistic that is correlated with pitcher wins. With just this one filter, we can see that searching for pitchers likely to win their games creates value.
Of course, if we want to find pitchers likely to win, we should also probably target pitchers on teams favored to win by Vegas.
Step 2: Vegas Filters > Moneyline > “-385 to -110”
Note that the addition of this one filter adds a great deal of value to the trend. Also, if you wanted to beef up the trend by screening only for heavy favorites you could do so — although you would also make the sample substantially smaller in the process. Let’s not do that . . . just yet.
Finally, it might make sense to target pitchers who can help themselves get through at least six innings by creating their own outs. With that in mind, we could target pitchers projected (via our K Predictor) to be no worse than average at striking out batters in their matchups.
Step 3: Stat Filters > SO Prediction Pct > “50 to 100”
With just three filters, we’ve easily added almost three full FD points of value to a pitcher’s salary-based expectations.
And in today’s slate there are quite a few pitchers to choose from who match this trend.
Current Matches
There are some true studs in this cohort, and even some of the lesser pitchers — such as Rick Porcello (who was highlighted by Bill Monighetti in yesterday’s Trend of the Day) — are intriguing and seem to be in good spots.
Honestly, almost any pitcher on this list has a decent chance of returning value today.
The Turbo Trend: These Guys Are Winners
But what if almost three FD points of added value aren’t enough for you? What if you are chasing a potential Black Swan?
I mentioned earlier that if we wanted to make the trend more muscular, we could. Here’s the juiced-up version of the trend:
Step 1: Stat Filters > IP > “6.5 to 9”
Step 2: Vegas Filters > Moneyline > “-385 to -200”
Step 3: Stat Filters > SO Prediction Pct > “90 to 100”
Since 2012, this trend has resulted in outsized value and incredible Consistency (and I imagine Upside) for 105 pitchers.
I haven’t done a line-item check of the Past Results tab, but given the +10.93 Plus/Minus I assume that most of the pitchers who have previously matched for this trend have won their games. It’s unlikely that they would be able to outperform expectations so dramatically without that 12-point bump.
As it happens, there’s one pitcher in today’s slate who is a current match for the turbo trend. If you look at the photo at the top of the article, you can probably figure out who he is.
Good luck!
