At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our “Trend of the Day” series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Model tools.
MLB Trend of the Day: FanDuel Bottom-Half Batters Who Might Not Suck
In guaranteed prize pools, some DFS players will roster a couple of players from the bottom halves of batting orders in an attempt to create unique lineups. With that in mind, I have created a FanDuel trend that screens for hitters who are sixth through ninth in their batting orders and perhaps still worth rostering, despite their disadvantaged spots.
Step 1: Player Filters > Lineup Order > “6 to 9”
We should be under no delusions. The average batter who hits in the bottom half of the order historically has a negative Plus/Minus. In searching for differentiation, the DFS player who rosters such a hitter is taking a calculated risk, hoping that the batter can outperform not only his salary-adjusted expectations, but also the decreased expectations of this trend.
Also, we shouldn’t forget that the early part of the MLB season is very unpredictable. As I pointed out last week, it sometimes works out that a trend, otherwise positive, might be negative in April. So we should take the time of the season into account.
Step 2: Time Filters > Month > “April”
Again, the DFS player who wants to find rosterable hitters in the bottom halves of orders should be informed. Doing so is roughly the fantasy equivalent of looking for rolls of hundred dollar bills buried deep inside bulk packages of toilet paper.
But is there a way to find money in the midst of paper intended for something other than spending? Yes.
Remember that Advanced MLB Data is now available as part of our 2016 MLB product. Included in this new data is the average distance traveled by a ball hit by any given batter over a specific period of time. What happens if we look at batters who have hit the ball farther recently than they generally have over a longer period of time? In other words, what if we look for batters who are on something of a hot streak?
Step 3: Adv Stats – Recent > Distance Diff Score > “80 to 100”
That’s a pretty big swing. Simply by looking at the (adjusted) difference between the distances a player on average has hit the ball over short-term and longer-term time frames, we are able to find productive players among a cohort of batters who otherwise historically underperform.
And can we make this trend any better? Maybe, if we add a pricing element and look for players who have a Bargain Rating no worse than 50.
Step 4: Trends > Bargain Rating > “50 to 100”
I admit that the count isn’t high. At the same time, if you create this trend and look at “Current Matches” you will see a lot of players.
Current Matches
There are way too many for me to catch with a screenshot. Even if we look only at those with Dist Diff Scores of at least 99, we still have 11 players who match for this trend:
Of particular interest might be Chris Young, Aaron Hicks, and Pablo Sandoval. Not only are all three guys absolutely crushing the ball right now (in comparison to how they normally hit), but they also all have Bargain Ratings on FanDuel of greater than 90 percent.
The Takeaway
I don’t want to give you the impression that I’ve discovered the silver bullet that will enable you to hit on productive bottom-half batters all the time. The fact is that, if you ever roster guys hitting later in the order, you are intentionally using batters with diminished odds of meeting their salary-adjusted expectations.
But if you are looking to create some unique lineups featuring bottom-half batters who might not suck, the “Current Matches” for this trend is probably a decent place to start your search.
Good luck!
