At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our “Trend of the Day” series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Model tools.
MLB Trend of the Day: Elite Pitchers With Different K Predictions
In today’s slate, there are five top-tier pitching options priced above $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Stephen Strasburg – $11,000
- Jon Lester – $11,000
- Jose Fernandez – $10,800
- Felix Hernandez – $10,700
- Corey Kluber – $10,700
Within our Players Models, I can quickly see that each one of these players has a positive Bargain Rating on FanDuel, Lester is the only one with a current possibility of rain, Fernandez has the highest Park Factor, etc. Any one of these data points can be a contributing factor to our method of pitcher selection.
One factor of particular interest might be K Prediction. When looking at that metric, I noticed that I naturally began to break these five pitchers into three categories.
- There are two who have a current K Prediction of at least 10, which is elite: Strasburg and Fernandez.
- There are another two who have a K Prediction just over eight, which is good but not great: Lester and Kluber.
- One of our high-priced pitchers has a K Prediction below 7, which is alarmingly low: Hernandez.
What I am most interested in is how significantly I should knock Felix down in my rankings due to his poor K Prediction, and the Trends tool should provide me with an answer.
Step 1: Player Filters > Salary > “10,000 to 13,700”
We will only be looking at players who are at least $10,000 on FanDuel. We can see that elite pitchers (or at least those who are priced among elite pitchers) have a Plus/Minus of +2.28. This will serve as our baseline as we look at how these players have performed with different K Predictions.
Step 2: Trends > K Prediction > “10 to 10.9”
A sample size of 12 is not something that I am going to weight significantly. What it does show us is that these pitchers find themselves in rare situations. The results really shouldn’t be considered, as a count this small can be greatly thrown off by a single result.
For example, Felix Hernandez qualified for this trend when he had a -20 point performance in June of last year, which I actually remember and wish I could forget. I’ll spare myself the pain of typing that story, but we do see the dangers involved in dealing with a low count.
Throwing this first example out, we are going to repeat that second step by looking at players who have a K Prediction of at least eight in order to get a worthwhile sample size.
Step 3: Trends > K Prediction > “8 to 10.9”
We have a respectable sample of 181 and an excellent Plus/Minus of +6.54, which is +4.26 points higher than our baseline of players with a salary of at least $10,000. Our current matches for this trend are Strasburg, Fernandez, Lester, and Kluber.
What this trend really demonstrates is the power of the new K Predictor. Even when we eliminate the salary filter and include every pitcher in the initial sample, the pitchers with a K Prediction of at least eight have a Plus/Minus of +5.31. K Prediction is a powerful metric.
Finally, let’s set our filter to look only at high-priced pitchers with a K Prediction below seven. I am looking at you, Felix.
Step 4: Trends > K Prediction > Set to – “3.5 to 6.9”
Again, we have a nice respectable count. The Plus/Minus is slightly positive, but it is -2.13 points lower than the baseline we set earlier. That’s not good for Felix Hernandez.
Conclusion
Is Felix’s comparative K Prediction shortcomings enough to bump him out of consideration for today’s slate? Probably in cash games, but in tournaments he may be worth a closer look, as his recent struggles aren’t a secret and should result in his being rostered in a low percentage of lineups. It doesn’t help his case that, per our advanced data, Felix has recently lost 1.6 miles per hour in average pitch velocity.
The other four high-priced options are definitely in better spots and warrant consideration in both cash and tournaments tonight.
Good luck!
