At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our “Trend of the Day” series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Model tools.
Sometimes we have to break the rules to get what we want. Maybe we’re running a little late to a meeting so we drive a few miles over the speed limit to avoid the awkward stares from our disapproving co-workers. Or perhaps we opt to skip our workout to grab a beer with friends. Whatever the particular rule is that we’re breaking, we do so because we’ve decided the risk associated with breaking that rule is worth the potential payoff.
Applying this concept to the world of DFS — tournaments in particular — a common “want” is to get a player at an ownership discount. To do so, we generally have to break an accepted rule or two. In this case, the rule we’re looking to break is the idea that we want to roster players with positive platoon splits. And because we’re looking at tournaments, we’ll be focusing on ISO specifically.
MLB Trend of the Day: Elite ISO with Negative ISO Split
Step 1: Stat Split Filters > ISO Diff Percentile > Set to “0 to 33”
Right off the bat we can see that setting this filter leaves us with a negative Plus/Minus of -0.15, which is in line with the general concept that it is beneficial to target players on the upper end of the spectrum when it comes to ISO Differential.
Step 2: Stat Split Filters > ISO Split > Set to “.2 to .75”
We’re moving in the right direction, but still looking at a group of sub-optimal players, with an average Plus/Minus of -0.10. Let’s see if we can’t improve upon this trend by adding a Park Factor filter, targeting positive hitter’s parks.
Step 3: Trends > Park Factor (Beta) > Set to “50 to 100”
Now, let’s see our final results!
With an average Plus/Minus of +0.30 and a Consistency rating of 40.1% we’re not looking at extremely positive results, but positive nonetheless. With the likely ownership discount we’ll be receiving on these elite sluggers, just the fact that we are able to find a way to roster them in a situation that is still positive is a win in it’s own right.
This trend speaks to the idea of being contrarian, but doing so in a smart way. We’re not just targeting players with sub-optimal splits because we know their ownership will be lower than it would usually be, but instead we’re targeting specific groups of players that are in a position that may not be as negative as the casual player that only utilizes basic stats, such as a player’s splits, may believe it to be. These are batters that possess an immense amount of upside due to their ability to produce power — even if it is slightly decreased due to their matchup — that we are rostering with potentially huge ownership discounts.
Understanding the makeup of any given day’s slate is huge in projecting this ownership though, as smaller slates or days that are light on potential options at a specific position may reduce the likelihood of an ownership discount, so proper research will still need to be done to help assure you are gaining the discount you’re looking for.
Finally, let’s take a look at the players that make up our current matches.
Good luck tonight!
