At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our “Trend of the Day” series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Model tools.
MLB Trend of the Day: April Stacks with Low Vegas Totals and Hidden Upside
April is not a great month for MLB. The weather in April can be very unpredictable and isn’t at all consistent from one location to another. In Texas, it might already feel like summer while in Colorado it could still snow at almost any moment. And I’m not just saying that April isn’t great. There are numbers to back this up. (By the way, I’m looking at players on FanDuel this week.)
Step 1: Time Filters > Month > “April”
Out of all the full months of the season, no month is worse than April. Of course, there could be many explanations for this fact. Maybe the DFS platforms aren’t as sharp at pricing guys early in the year. Or maybe the players themselves aren’t as sharp. Or, as I mentioned earlier, maybe it’s just the weather.
Whatever the reason is, I don’t entirely care. All that I care about right now is that the evidence suggests that April sucks.
And, as one might expect, it’s especially bad for the teams that aren’t expected to score a lot of runs.
Step 2: Vegas Filters > Runs > “2.3 to 4”
In the month of April, if a team has had an implied Vegas total of no more than four runs, it has pretty much been screwed. Only the leadoff batter on such a team has historically provided a positive Plus/Minus:
Now here’s the question: Can such a lineup be saved from utterly sucking? Yes.
Step 3: Trends > Home Plate Ump > Any Umpire with at least a +1.0 Plus/Minus
Basically, there’s no lineup that a hitter-friendly umpire can’t redeem. I’ve written before about the importance of DFS context, and Brandon Hopper has outlined why umpires deserve our DFS love. Basically, even when a lineup is in a bad spot, it can have success when it’s placed in the context of an advantageous home-plate umpire.
Current Matches
With both Carlos Torres and Joe West behind the plate, the entirety of the Reds and Braves currently match for this trend, and only seven of the batters on these teams have salaries of at least $2,500. That’s intriguing.
The Takeaway
If I had to stack one of these teams, it would probably be the Reds. Very few of the Braves batters are actually discounted on FanDuel (per our Bargain Rating metric), but many of the Reds are. Joey Votto has a 76 percent Bargain Rating. Brandon Phillips, 82 percent. Eugenio Suarez, 93 percent.
Additionally, the Reds-Mets game has a 73 percent chance of precipitation, which means that fewer people than usual are likely to stack the Reds in tournaments and Bartolo Colon (the Mets projected starting pitcher) might not last all that far into the game if there is a rain delay.
Obviously, you shouldn’t go crazy with your tournament exposure to the Reds — but, because of their hidden Upside, their ownership percentage is likelier to be much lower than it probably should be.
Good luck!
