At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best daily fantasy sports tools and data available. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers each weekday through an important trend, created with our FREE Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Pitchers With High Ground-Ball and Low Hard-Hit Rates
One of the great perks of FantasyLabs’ tools is the ability to view advanced stats, especially recent (15-day) advanced stats. Given the marathon nature of the MLB season, focusing on these short-term stats can help us find players who are performing particularly well recently.
With that in mind, let’s see if we can find some pitchers who have good short-term statistics and might be relatively undervalued. Specifically, let’s look at pitchers who have high recent ground-ball rates and low recent hard-hit rates.
Step 1: Advanced Stats – Recent > Ground-Ball Percentage > 40 to 80
By focusing on pitchers who have high ground-ball rates, we can limit our exposure to home runs.
Step 2: Advanced Stats – Recent > Hard-Hit Differential > -31 to -5
However a pitcher is able to improve his ability to avoid hard hits, doing so adds a big boost to our Plus/Minus.
Step 3: Advanced Stats – Recent > Hard Hit Percentage > 0 to 25
A drop in Hard-Hit Differential doesn’t mean that much if a pitcher’s starting point is in the 60-percentile range. Limiting the hard-hit rate to 25 percent weeds out the random outliers.
Results
Our trend adds 4.32 points to players’ expected averages with a strikingly high 61.6-percent Consistency. Players who match for this trend at a minimum are likely to be viable options for cash games.
Plus/Minus, Consistency, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Current Matches
Tonight’s slate has two pitchers who match our trend.
With a slate-best WHIP, HR/9, and -225 Vegas moneyline, Jake Arrieta leads all pitching options tonight. He should be a lock for most cash lineups.
If you’re seeking an outside-the-box pitcher, take a look at Trevor Bauer, the second pitcher who meets our criteria. Bauer has a nice matchup against Atlanta, which has the second-lowest wOBA and is projected for only 3.5 runs. Bauer’s incredibly low batted-ball distance allowed of only 155 feet and his 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel make him a great Upside play after averaging 50 fantasy points over his last four outings.
Good luck tonight!
