At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best daily fantasy sports tools and data available. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers each weekday through an important trend, created with our free Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Low-K Pitchers Who Are Favorites
In DFS, we’re always looking for an edge. Sometimes we can find that through roundabout ways. For instance, instead of rostering chalky pitchers projected to get a lot of strikeouts, what if we differentiate our lineups by using low-K pitchers who are Vegas favorites?
It’s a high-risk, high-reward move that seeks to sacrifice a couple of three-point strikeout awards for the 12-point victory bonus on FanDuel.
How successful is this strategy? Let’s find out.
Step 1: Stat Filters > SO Per 9 > 0 to 8
Limiting our pitchers to those who have under-performed with eight or fewer strikeouts per nine innings puts our Plus/Minus in a -1.01 hole. Let’s see how Vegas can turn this around.
Step 2: Vegas Filters > Moneyline > -325 to -140
Targeting favored pitchers who are on teams with relatively safe expectations to win really turns our Plus/Minus around.
Step 3: Trends > Pro Trends > 5 to 11
Targeting pitchers who also have five or more Pro Trends has historically been a profitable strategy.
Results
Putting it all together, we get a trend that surpasses expectations by +2.98 FanDuel points with 57.7 percent Consistency.
Current Matches
Our trend has one current pitcher who meets all of our factors. Jameson Taillon has a matchup with the visiting Astros tonight. Despite his low-strikeout potential, Taillon has eclipsed 40 fantasy points on FanDuel twice in his last seven outings and his affordable $7,500 salary there could allow room to pay up for bats tonight.
Good luck!
Note: Our Player Models and Lineups page update in real time to give subscribers the most accurate information available. As Vegas totals change, the current player matches may also change after this article is published.
