At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best daily fantasy sports tools and data available. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers each weekday through an important trend, created with our free Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Batters Who Crush Ground-Ball Pitchers
Ground-ball pitchers by definition tend to keep the ball down and thus are thought of as being less likely to allow home runs, big hits that travel a far distance, and lots of fantasy production to opposing batters.
So what kind of batters are able to do well against these traditionally tough, ground-ball pitchers? Let’s find out.
Step 1: Adv Stats – Opp > Opp GB % – Season > 50 to 88
Starting our trend with a high ground-ball rate above 50 percent for opposing pitchers, we have a cohort with a -0.15 Plus/Minus. Eight pitchers on tonight’s 11-game slate meet this 50 percent threshold.
Step 2: Stat Split Filters > ISO Split > 0.2 to 3
An Isolated Power (ISO) split of 0.200 brings our Plus/Minus back into positive territory. It makes sense that batters would have a better chance of doing well in particular circumstances when facing pitchers whose handedness tends to benefit them in general.
Step 3: Advanced Stats – Recent > GB % – 15 > 0 to 25
This step essentially is looking to see which is stronger: A batter’s anti-ground-ball tendencies? — or a pitcher’s ability to induce ground balls? If we want to overcome ground-ball pitchers, it makes a lot of sense to target batters who simply don’t hit a lot of ground balls.
Step 4: Trends > Pro Trends > 4 to 11
Pro Trends are a powerful tool that have historically fared quite well. The more Pro Trends we have, the higher our Plus/Minus climbs.
Results
Putting it all together, we get a trend that adds +1.73 fantasy points with 46.4 percent Consistency. That’s pretty good considering that we are targeting batters facing pitchers who concern some DFS players.
Current Matches
Our trend found a pair of players for tonight, coincidentally in the same game.
Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams meets all of the criteria in our trend and currently has six Pro Trends heading into his matchup against Noah Syndergaard. His 51 percent hard-hit rate and 48 percent fly-ball rate are appealing, despite his tough matchup. Projected to bat fifth for St. Louis, Adams could be a potentially low-owned tournament option considering that he’s on a team currently implied to score only 2.8 runs.
The second match for tonight is Yoenis Cespedes, who has a hefty 53 percent recent fly ball rate. Cespedes’ .299 batting average and 21 home runs on the season could make this quite the matchup against Carlos Martinez, who sports one of the lowest HR/9 rates on the slate.
Good luck tonight!
Note: Our Player Models update in real time to give subscribers the most accurate information available. As Vegas totals change, the current player matches may also change after this article is published.
