At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
Trend of the Day: Mediocre K Prediction, Positive Umpire
What the main slate lacks in chalk it makes up for in benevolent umpires. Seven of the 12 night games feature an umpire sporting a positive Plus/Minus for pitchers on FanDuel. Furthermore, the highest K Prediction on the slate belongs to Robbie Ray at 7.4, and only five pitchers possess a K Prediction of at least 6.5. That begs the question: Will the combination of mediocre K Predictions and positive Plus/Minus umpires yield desired results?
Step 1: Trends > K Prediction > 4.4 to 6.4
Setting the range below 6.5 removes the top-five options on the main slate from consideration.
Step 2: Time Filters > MLB Season > 2015 and 2016
I want to focus on umpires who have been most beneficial to pitchers over the last season and a half. FanDuel data goes back to 2012, but not all umpires have been favorable for five straight seasons. The filter shows a significant drop-off in pitchers with a mediocre K Prediction since 2015.
Step 3: Trends > Home Plate Ump > Minimum +1.0 Plus/Minus and Count of 40
The order of operations matters in this trend. Rather than rely on overall benevolent umpires since 2012, we can selectively choose umpires who have been a positive influence to pitchers with a mediocre K Prediction since 2015.
The restrictions return 26 umpires who have significantly impacted pitchers with a low K Prediction. With the exception of Will Little, Rob Drake, and Scott Barry, all of whom aren’t listed on the main slate, pitchers with these umpires have produced a Consistency of 50.0 percent.
Step 4: Vegas Filters > Favorite/Dog > Favorite
Sacrificing strikeouts for a higher chance of a win thoroughly raises the Consistency and Plus/Minus when combined with the umpires who empower pitchers with mediocre K Predictions.
Current Matches
Jose Quintana, Bartolo Colon, and Jaime Garcia all qualify for the trend.
Quintana is the most expensive option ($9,000), he carries the lowest K Prediction (5.3), and the White Sox-Royals game is teetering on a push, as both teams currently display a -104 moneyline in the dynamic Player Models.
Colon benefits from a slate-high seven Pro Trends on FanDuel and the fact that Chris Owings is the only projected hitter in the Diamondbacks lineup with a positive hard-hit percentage over the past 15 days. He will probably be overlooked because of his low K Prediction (5.5), but, in 41 home starts as a Met, Colon has met salary-based expectations 61 percent of the time and provided a +2.00 Plus/Minus. Plus, like Bryan Mears pointed out in today’s Slate Breakdown, Colon’s got a prescient and overpriced hoodie.
Garcia recorded 11 strikeouts in his last performance with Hunter Wendelstedt, an umpire included in today’s filter, behind the plate. Of the three matches, Garcia claims the highest K Prediction (6.2), the highest moneyline (-155), and the lowest recent fly-ball rate (25 percent).
