At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best daily fantasy sports tools and data available. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers each weekday through an important trend, created with our FREE Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Hard-Hitting Vegas Favorites
The ability Vegas has to provide an accurate landscape for any type of sporting game is uncanny. As DFS players, we should take advantage of Vegas’ implied projections each slate.
Additionally, we should also be sure to pay attention to our advanced stats, since how batters actually hit the ball is more representative than the fantasy production they’ve recently accumulated.
Let’s create a trend to quantify the value of focusing on Vegas and advanced stats.
Step 1A: Vegas Filters > Favorite/Dog > Favorite
Step 1B: Vegas Filters > Moneyline > At least -150
Step 1C: Vegas Filters > Runs > At least 5
First we need to set our Vegas filters. By selecting teams that are favorites, have quality moneylines, and are projected to score a lot of runs, we can take advantage of everything Vegas has to offer.
Step 2: Advanced Stats – Recent > Hard-Hit Percentage > 45 to 100
By looking at our recent advanced data, which gives an overview of the past 15 days, we can find hitters who have an exceptional hard-hit percentage.
Step 3: Advanced Stats – Recent > Exit Velocity > 92 to 102
Elevating our Exit Velocity to at least 92 miles per hour helps our trend find more Consistency.
Plus/Minus, Consistency, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Results
Our trend has a 3.16 Plus/Minus with a 48.3 percent Consistency rating. While there aren’t a lot of hits on this trend (only 230 counts to date), it did lead me to Danny Espinosa the other night, when he exploded for 57.4 points on FanDuel. The factors utilized here make any of the players viable cash or tournament plays.
Current Matches
We have three batters who match our trend today.
All three are Cardinals’ players in a terrific matchup at home against pitcher Jon Niese, who has been struggling as of late.
Matt Carpenter’s positive splits against fellow lefties make him an intriguing play for today. He has increased his hard-hit percentage by five points recently and has a terrific 51 percent fly-ball rate.
Matt Holiday brings a .326 Weighted On-Base Average to the table along with six Pro Trends. His 97 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel makes him an affordable option to get in all lineups.
Brandon Moss adds a 3.62-second batted-ball air time. Given his low ground-ball rate of 31 percent, Moss has the potential to go yard with his high hard-hit rate.
All three players make for an excellent stack today in what Vegas predicts to be a high-scoring game for St. Louis.
Good luck today!
