At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Bottom-Third Batters with High Totals in Good Parks
Batters in the bottom third of the order have historically performed well below their salary-based expectations on FanDuel with a negative Plus/Minus of -0.85.
Only 19,536 of the 55,978 batters in the sample have either met or exceeded expectations. Avoiding these hitters, as a general rule, is a pretty sound strategy.
But what happens when those same batters are on teams with high Vegas-implied run totals playing in hitter-friendly ball parks? Is there value to be found? Let’s find out.
Step 1: Trends > Player Filters > Lineup Order > 7 to 9
Yep, these guys suck. This filter establishes the baseline.
Now let’s look for batters playing in ballparks with Park Factors of at least 60.
Step 2: Trends > Park Factor > 60 to 100
The Park Factor (the historic percentile rank of a ballpark’s hitter-friendliness, adjusted for handedness) has shaved off 0.48 points of negative Plus/Minus value and improved the Consistency of our bottom-third batters, but this remains a situation I would want to avoid.
Now let’s see if the wiseguys in Vegas can help our cause by giving our batters an implied run total of a least 4.6 runs.
Step 3: Vegas Filters > Runs > 4.6 to 7.8
This is a huge improvement, and there is surely some contrarian value to be found in these hitters.
In fact, Carlos Perez, Yasmany Thomas and Chris Parmalee have all scored 50-plus FanDuel points this season as matches to this trend.
Current Matches
Matching for this trend today are eight hitters projected to hit in the bottom-third of the order. Texas’ Nomar Mazara and Mitch Moreland share the highest Park Factor at 65 and have a hefty implied total of 5.6 runs. Boston’s Bryan Holaday and Aaron Hill share the highest implied total at a massive 5.9 runs, and their Park Factor is 61.
For those thinking about playing at least one of these players, know that increasing our created trend’s minimum run total to 5.6 skyrockets the Plus/Minus up to +1.08 with 45.9 percent Consistency.
* Our models update in real time to give subscribers the most accurate information available. Implied run totals may change and update through the day. Additional batters may match this trend and batters named above may no longer match as totals and lineups update. Monitor our Lineups page for updates.
