In the MLB Recent Form Report, I apply filters listed under the “Adv Stats – Recent” heading of our FREE MLB Trends tool. I am looking for players whose recent play has not shown up in their stats or whose production has been exceeding or falling short of expectations. The MLB Recent Form Report is released on Monday morning each week.
Pitchers
Chris Sale
Sale is an interesting pitcher to profile in this series because, while his velocity had been down for several games (per our advanced stats), it hadn’t really affected his surface level stats . . . until recently. After averaging 95.1 miles per hour on his two-seam fastball in his first start of the season, he has generally been around 92.5-93 MPH ever since.
In Part I of my Study on Fastball Velocity, I noted that a loss in velocity is probably less significant when it occurs at the beginning of the season. Whereas a mid-season velocity drop is much more likely to be a sign of injury or fatigue, one at the beginning of the season may be the result of a change in approach over the offseason.
Still, it’s strange that Sale opened the season throwing 95 MPH. Had he begun the year throwing 92.5, I’d probably be ready to write it off at this point. But after outpacing his BABIP and SIERA for several starts, the floodgates opened on Sale against the Indians on 5/24. In his three most recent starts, Sale has allowed nearly as many earned runs (14) as he has recorded strikeouts (16).
One glimpse at Sale’s advanced stats shows you that things may get worse before they get better. His batted-ball distance allowed is up 35 feet over the past 15 days and his hard-hit rate allowed is up 11 percentage points over that same timeframe.
It doesn’t help that Sale’s price remains high. During his last start, Sale was $12,700 on DraftKings. In creating a trend for expensive pitchers with declining advanced stats, we can see that pitchers rarely maintain a high price when they struggle as Sale has struggled. To that point, there are only two total matches in our database:
Until A) Sale’s velocity comes back up to 94-95 MPH, B) his price comes way down, and/or C) he stops allowing as much hard contact, he is going to be a pretty easy player for me to avoid.
Chris Archer
On the other hand, I may be ready to start considering Archer as a DFS play once again based on his recent stats. As a pitcher who relies so heavily on elite velocity, Archer ran into a lot of trouble over April and May due to an average fastball velocity that has been, at times, one-and-a-half to two miles slower than where we would like to see it.
In Archer’s last start against the Royals, however, he was back up to 95.1 MPH, which is actually slightly faster than his average fastball velocity over the past year. It’s also encouraging that his recent batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage allowed all hover around his yearly averages.
Archer’s fantasy production has been lacking recently, but he has played five of his last six games on the road and faced some tough opponents in those matchups. Over his past 100+ starts, Archer averages around three-and-a-half more fantasy points when pitching at home. Unfortunately, Archer is on the road again today, facing the Diamondbacks in Arizona. But the next time Archer is back at home, let’s see if his recent advanced stats translate into a nice fantasy score.
Batters
Byron Buxton
Super prospect Buxton’s advanced stats say that he may be more prepared to play in The Show this time around. While his overall batted-ball distance of 195 feet and exit velocity of 88 MPH do not inspire much confidence, his recent stats are much better (235 feet and 95 MPH ).
When I use Buxton’s recent stats as a template, the most frequent matches are Joey Votto, J.D. Martinez, Kris Bryant, Paul Goldschmidt, and Mike Trout:
Also, note the 7.55 average expected points, which match with a DraftKings salary of around $4,000. So even when Buxton’s price inevitably comes up, there is still plenty of room for profit, assuming that his advanced stats remain constant.
Anthony Rizzo
You wouldn’t expect to find Rizzo’s batted-ball distance under 200 feet, but that’s exactly where it has been over the past 15 days. The 190-foot distance that Rizzo has been averaging recently represents a 30-foot decline from his yearly average. As you can imagine, his HH% is also down by eight points, while his groundball rate has risen by 15 points up to 51 percent.
Keep in mind, though, that Rizzo has homered in two games over the past week and may be getting ready to turn things around. Historically, his slumps tend not to linger for very long. When his 15-day batted-ball distance has been under 200 feet, he actually has a Plus/Minus of +1.39 on DraftKings.
The next time Rizzo is slumping and his price is down, remember this trend.
Conclusion
Today, we looked at two aces who have been underperforming recently. Based on the underlying advanced stats, I believe that things should turn around in the near future for one of them. For the other, I expect the beatings to continue in the short term. Additionally, we looked at two batters, one of whom is a rising star with impressive advanced stats and the other of whom might be a sneaky tournament play.
As always, we are only scratching the surface here, so head on over to our free MLB Trends tool and see what you can discover on your own.
