This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze MLB stacks in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Houston Astros
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s highest-rated five-man stack in the Bales Player Model belongs to the Houston Astros, who are currently tied for the highest implied team total at 4.9 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard):
The Astros were one of the sharper teams to target yesterday (5/2), as many of their position players had increased ownership in the higher-stakes tournaments (per the Ownership Dashboard). Their recent Statcast data has been especially impressive, as three of the hitters in this stack over the last 15 days have outperformed their 12-month batted ball averages. Houston batters with comparable batted ball differentials and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.06 on DraftKings. The current forecast in Houston does call for a strong chance of precipitation, so make sure to monitor the situation prior to lineup lock.
Boston Red Sox
The other team currently with an implied total of 4.9 runs is the Boston Red Sox, whose projected top-four hitters form the highest-rated four-man stack on FanDuel in the CSURAM88 Model:
Although they’re not cheap, the Red Sox offer some value, as three of the hitters in this stack have Bargain Ratings of at least 85 percent on FanDuel. Per our Trends Tool, batters with comparable Bargain Ratings and implied team totals have posted a historical Plus/Minus of +1.14.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals are almost always intriguing. On the one hand, they destroy left-handed pitching, with Jason Werth and Ryan Zimmerman in particular posting ISOs vs. LHP of over .500 in the last 12 months. If we build a four-man stack by ISO, they lead the slate by a wide margin:
On the other hand, they have a lower implied total than the Astros and Red Sox and are facing a potentially tougher pitcher in Robbie Ray, who can be dominant: He’s struck out at least eight batters in three of his last four starts. However, his recent Statcast data suggest he’s been lucky. His 15-day hard hit rate is 10 percentage points higher than his 12-month average, and he’s posted a Recent Batted Ball Luck Score of -69. There’s risk in targeting a pitcher like Ray, but there’s also plenty of upside, which makes the Nationals appealing in guaranteed prize pools.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today for more stack analysis!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
