This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze MLB stacks in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Philadelphia Phillies
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Today’s top stack in the Bales Player Model belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
On paper the Phillies appear to be in a good spot. Per the Vegas Dashboard, they have the third-highest implied team total on the main slate at 4.7 runs, and they also have the best Weather Rating of the day at 82. They have a few batters who hit left-handed pitchers well — Aaron Altherr, Tommy Joseph, Michael Saunders, and Cameron Rupp all have ISOs of at least .250 against lefties — and batters with comparable implied team totals, Weather Ratings, and split-specific ISOs have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.07 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
However, opposing pitcher Martin Perez is not an ordinary lefty. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher who allows a lot of hits but excels at keeping the ball in the ballpark. So far this season he’s allowed only three home runs over 44 innings, and he has impressive Statcast data over his last two starts with a 170-foot batted ball distance, 87 mph exit velocity, and 59 percent ground ball rate. The upside for the Phillies is perhaps more limited than it seems.
New York Mets
On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the New York Mets:
Although the Mets are implied for ‘only’ 4.6 runs and Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce have severe negative splits against left-handed pitchers, what these batters have going for them is a matchup against Patrick Corbin, who has allowed a 35 percent hard hit rate over the course of the season. Batters at Chase Field facing starting pitchers with comparable hard hit rates have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.95 on DraftKings. Given that they have a lower implied team total than the Indians and Diamondbacks, the Mets could have reduced ownership, which Pro subscribers can review using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
New York Yankees
If you’re looking for a more contrarian stack on the main slate, consider the New York Yankees. The top four-man ISO group belongs to the projected 2-3-5-9 Yankees hitters:
All four of the above batters have 12-month ISOs of at least .289 against lefties, and Matt Holliday and Gary Sanchez both top the .350 mark. Sanchez and Chris Carter also have Bargain Ratings of 93 and 95 on FanDuel. They’re facing a left-handed pitcher in Jason Vargas, who’s been successful to start the season, although his Statcast Data suggests he’s been lucky recently: His Recent Batted Ball Luck Score of -73 is one of the worst marks on the slate. Also, the Royals bullpen has been extremely overworked of late; the Yankees easily lead the slate with an Opponent Bullpen Rating of 99. If they knock Vargas out of the game early, they could smash.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
