This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze MLB stacks in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
St. Louis Cardinals
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Using the Bales Model, the highest-rated stack on DraftKings belongs to the Cardinals:
The Cardinals are currently implied to score a relatively-modest 4.5 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard) but still hold the top-two spots in the Bales Model. Tommy Pham leads the team with 10 Pro Trends and benefits from phenomenal recent batted ball statistics: He’s averaged a batted ball exit velocity of 96 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 57 percent. Opposing pitcher Jon Gray suffers from the fourth-worst WHIP out of all pitchers in the main slate and has allowed an average batted ball distance of 222 feet over the last 15 days. Matt Carpenter, who is expected to return after missing Monday’s win with a tight right quad, ranks as the top overall hitter in the Bales Model thanks to his combination of lineup spot, hitting splits, and recent Statcast data. Since the Cardinals sit outside the top-10 teams in implied runs, they project to carry low ownership in tournaments. Pro Subscribers can review ownership trends across tournaments of various buy-in levels after lineup lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Oakland Athletics
Building stacks based on ISO is a simple strategy to gain maximum upside in large-field tournaments. The Athletics rank second when sorted by ISO on FanDuel in the Bales Model:
Matt Chapman leads all hitters with a .474 ISO against right-handed pitching, while Khris Davis and Yonder Alonso rank second and third on the team. Chapman has excelled with positive recent batted ball statistics by producing a 68 percent fly ball percentage over the last 15 days with three home runs in his previous three games. The Athletics face Blue Jays right-hander Cesar Valdez, who yields a slate-worst 2.466 HR/9 rate among all pitchers on Tuesday as he makes a spot start for the injured Aaron Sanchez. Davis leads the team with a 31 percent Upside Rating in the last month and ranks third in the league with 28 home runs this season.
Houston Astros
We have recently integrated FantasyDraft tools and data into our Models. The Astros possess the highest-rated six-man stack in the CSURAM88 Model:
The Astros are currently implied to score 5.1 runs even after receiving news that George Springer is expected to miss Tuesday’s game with left quad discomfort. Per our Lineups Page, Jose Altuve is projected to hit leadoff and has been on fire with a team-high 66 percent Consistency Rating this month. Opposing pitcher Nick Pivetta holds the second-worst HR/9 rate and has allowed a slate-worst 58 percent hard hit percentage over the last 15 days. Hitters with similar recent Statcast data to Altuve have averaged a +1.50 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool). The Astros could see decreased tournament ownership with their projected run total dropping 0.5 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard).
Good luck, and be sure to read today’s MLB Breakdown!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
