This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze MLB stacks in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Minnesota Twins
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top four-man FanDuel stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins, whose current implied team total is 5.4 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard):
First of all, note the 70 percent chance of precipitation (per our MLB Lineups page). While that’s high, batters with comparable team totals and precipitation odds have historically averaged a +1.94 Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool). Be sure to monitor the weather as lineup lock approaches, but due to rain concerns the Twins could have reduced ownership, which Pro Subscribers can review via our DFS Ownership Dashboard after lineups lock.
Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano are two of the top players in the Model, and Jason Castro — tied for second in the slate with eight Pro Trends — has great Satcast data with a batted ball distance of 254 feet and a hard hit rate of 54 percent. Batters comparable to Castro in Pro Trends and Statcast data have averaged a historical +3.36 Plus/Minus and 49.4 percent Consistency Rating.
Baltimore Orioles
The five-man DraftKings stack with the highest CSURAM88 Model rating in the main slate belongs to the Orioles:
The Orioles have an implied total of 5.3 runs, one of the five highest on the slate. However, they are facing White Sox lefty Derek Holland, and on the season they have a -0.70 Plus/Minus against left-handed pitchers. Nevertheless, Holland has horrible recent Statcast data with a batted ball distance of 231 feet and an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour. Historically, batters with similar team totals facing pitchers with comparable Statcast data have averaged a +1.46 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Even though the Orioles have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, and Trey Mancini have positive wOBA differentials against lefties. As Rickard and Mancini have both been owned at under four percent this season, it’s possible that this Orioles stack could be featured in a number of unique lineups.
San Diego Padres
The top DraftKings ISO stack belongs to the San Diego Padres:
Jose Pirela has been an absolute beast since being recalled from Triple-A ball. His Statcast data is off the charts with a recent batted ball distance of 274 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard hit rate of 57 percent. The sample is small, but it’s still impressive. Franchy Cordero also has some impressive Statcast data with a batted ball distance of 250 feet and exit velocity of 96 mph, and he has highly favorable batting splits as the only lefty in the stack with his .201 wOBA and .250 ISO differentials. Often overlooked, the Padres are cheap and likely to have low ownership.
Good luck, and be sure to read today’s MLB Breakdown!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
