This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze MLB stacks in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Detroit Tigers
In today’s main slate the highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Tigers, who are implied for 5.1 runs. That’s a solid mark, and yet Detroit is one of only nine teams with a total of at least 5.0 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard):
Amazingly Ian Kinsler, Alex Avila, Justin Upton, and Miguel Cabrera are all top-eight players in the Model and each have a minimum of eight Pro Trends. Per our Trends tool, batters comparable in implied totals, lineup spot, and Pro Trends have historically averaged 10.02 points with a +1.72 Plus/Minus and 46.8 percent Consistency Rating. While it’s a chalky move to stack the top half of a projected lineup, you could differentiate it by dropping J.D. Martinez — the stack’s most expensive player at $4,500 — and exploiting Avila’s dual eligibility by rostering him at first base instead of catcher. As it is, with so many teams implied for at least 5.0 runs, you might be able to stack the Tigers in unique lineups as long as you make some contrarian choices at other positions.
Pro subscribers can review ownership rates across guaranteed prize pools of various stakes with our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups locks.
New York Mets
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Two of today’s three highest-rated four-man FanDuel stacks in the Bales Model belong to the Mets, who are implied for 5.0 runs:
The lone difference between the two Mets stacks is that No. 3 hitter Yoenis Cespedes is in one and No. 6 hitter Wilmer Flores is in the other. Pivoting from Cespedes to Flores might be a sharp move. Flores isn’t as good against right-handed pitchers as Cespedes — the Mets are facing Phillies righty Ben Lively — but Flores is still making good contact: He has a batted ball distance of 231 feet and fly ball rate of 55 percent over the last 15 days. Batters similar to Flores in implied total and Statcast data have averaged 11.49 points with a +1.61 Plus/Minus. With a wind of 12 miles per hour forecast to blow out from home plate at Citi Field, Flores has long-ball upside.
Tampa Bay Rays
This week we’ve quietly (Shhh!) added FantasyDraft to our Models. Since FantasyDraft allows us to stack six batters, I have to mention the Rays, who have one of the top FantasyDraft stacks and are implied for a slate-high 5.6 runs:
Scheduled to face Orioles righty Chris Tillman, who has an unbelievable 11.79 ERA in his six starts since May 30, the left-handed hitters in the stack have a slate-high Park Factor of 78 at Camden Yards, and each batter except for Mallex Smith is on the positive side of his splits. Logan Morrison and Shane Peterson in particular are in good form with batted ball distances of 245 and 236 feet and fly ball rates of 42 and 53 percent. Historically, batters comparable to the Sons of Morris and Peter in implied total, Park Factor, and Statcast data have averaged 11.50 points with a +3.54 Plus/Minus. A wind of 13 miles per hour is expected to blow out from home plate in Baltimore. Multiple Rays have the potential to smash.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
