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MLB Pro Model Stacks: Friday 5/12

This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze MLB stacks in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.

Arizona Diamondbacks

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top four-man FanDuel stack in the Bales Player Model belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks. If you look at our Vegas Dashboard, you can see there are four teams with implied totals of five or more runs. One of them is the Diamondbacks with 5.1 runs:

The Diamondbacks take on Pirates starter Tyler Glasnow, who sports the slate’s fourth-highest WHIP at 1.786. Glasnow has allowed three earned runs, 10 walks, and 16 hits in his last three starts. He in particular could have trouble with Jake Lamb, who owns a career .374 wOBA and .290 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Texas Rangers

One of the top DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rangers, who own an implied team total of 4.7 runs, which is the fourth-highest mark on the slate. At the same time, they are expensive with a Team Value Rating of only 63:

The Rangers take on Athletics starter Jesse Hahn, who owns a recent batted ball distance of 206 feet, exit velocity of 91 mph, and hard hit rate of 38 percent. Carlos Gomez and Nomar Mazara have exceptional Statcast data with recent batted ball distances of at least 218 feet. They both also have Recent Batted Ball Luck Scores above 30. Here’s a definition of our Recent Batted Ball Luck metric:

The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days

They could be in line for some positive regression.

Los Angeles Dodgers

If you build stacks by ISO, the four highest-rated stacks involve the Dodgers, who are at Coors field. The top stack owns a .332 ISO, and the Dodgers currently own the slate’s highest implied run total at 5.3 runs (per our Lineups page):

Every batter in this Dodgers stack sports an ISO over .255. This could be a potent spot for the Dodgers, as Coors batters with comparable implied run totals have historically averaged a +2.39 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 49.3 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool.) With four teams implied for five or more runs, the ownership for this game will be intriguing. Pro subscribers can review ownership across guaranteed prize pools of all stakes via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.

Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:

This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze MLB stacks in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.

Arizona Diamondbacks

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top four-man FanDuel stack in the Bales Player Model belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks. If you look at our Vegas Dashboard, you can see there are four teams with implied totals of five or more runs. One of them is the Diamondbacks with 5.1 runs:

The Diamondbacks take on Pirates starter Tyler Glasnow, who sports the slate’s fourth-highest WHIP at 1.786. Glasnow has allowed three earned runs, 10 walks, and 16 hits in his last three starts. He in particular could have trouble with Jake Lamb, who owns a career .374 wOBA and .290 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Texas Rangers

One of the top DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rangers, who own an implied team total of 4.7 runs, which is the fourth-highest mark on the slate. At the same time, they are expensive with a Team Value Rating of only 63:

The Rangers take on Athletics starter Jesse Hahn, who owns a recent batted ball distance of 206 feet, exit velocity of 91 mph, and hard hit rate of 38 percent. Carlos Gomez and Nomar Mazara have exceptional Statcast data with recent batted ball distances of at least 218 feet. They both also have Recent Batted Ball Luck Scores above 30. Here’s a definition of our Recent Batted Ball Luck metric:

The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days

They could be in line for some positive regression.

Los Angeles Dodgers

If you build stacks by ISO, the four highest-rated stacks involve the Dodgers, who are at Coors field. The top stack owns a .332 ISO, and the Dodgers currently own the slate’s highest implied run total at 5.3 runs (per our Lineups page):

Every batter in this Dodgers stack sports an ISO over .255. This could be a potent spot for the Dodgers, as Coors batters with comparable implied run totals have historically averaged a +2.39 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 49.3 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool.) With four teams implied for five or more runs, the ownership for this game will be intriguing. Pro subscribers can review ownership across guaranteed prize pools of all stakes via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.

Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:

About the Author

Justin Bailey is the Lead Editor for RotoGrinders and FantasyLabs. He’s been playing DFS since 2013 and specializes in small-field NFL and PGA contests. Justin qualified for the DraftKings Fantasy Golf World Championship in 2023.