In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our FREE Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
Bryan Mears: Max Scherzer, WSH, SP
On a slate with so many aces, rostering Scherzer at his $13,300 salary at DraftKings might be hard to justify. However, the data suggests that despite his incredibly-high price tag he’s still worth a look, especially in tournaments.
There are a ton of strikeout pitchers in tonight’s main slate — six of the 22 pitchers have a K/9 rate higher than 10.0 — yet Scherzer has the highest K Prediction. Additionally, Scherzer has averaged 33 DK points per game in the last month, nearly three points more than any other pitcher today.
Per our advanced stats, his batted-ball distance allowed is similar to that of Noah Syndergaard, who will be a popular option tonight, especially given his recent fastball velocity of 98.6 miles per hour (a +1.1 MPH bump from his yearly average).
Scherzer’s periphals rival those of the other top pitchers, but because of his salary he is likely to be rostered in fewer lineups. Here’s the question you’ll have to ask yourself: Are Scherzer’s superior matchup and potentially depressed ownership sufficient to make up for his extreme salary?
Tyler Buecher: Yu Darvish, TX, SP
Tonight has some terrific pitchers on the mound, but Darvish has a chance of being one of those terrific pitchers with low ownership. There are six pitchers on tonight’s 11-game slate with more than a 10.0 K/9, and of those Darvish could be in the fewest lineups, as people might remain skittish during his return from Tommy John surgery.
Of the six high-K pitchers, Darvish is facing the team with the worst strikeout rate, an Astros squad with a .279 SO/AB. We saw last month that we want to target strikeout pitchers who keep the ball on the ground, and that’s what Darvish is, per our free Trends tool.
Additionally, the Rangers also own the highest closing moneyline bets (-150) among tonight’s top-pitching teams according to Vegas, giving Darvish a great chance to win and thus capture that elusive 12-point bonus on FanDuel, where he has a 91-percent Bargain Rating.
Bargain Rating and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Kelly McCann: Manny Machado, BAL, 3B/SS
Machado is a data-driven machine today, matching a slate-high 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings. Additionally, he’s crushing the ball over the past 15 days, hitting the ball 43 feet farther than his 12-month average, a slate-high mark among batters who have played at least 10 games in the past 15 days.
Similarly, Machado has increased the percentage of his hits that qualify as hard hits by 17 points, which is the fifth-best mark among hitters who have played at least 10 games in the past 15 days. In other words, Machado is hitting the ball farther and he is hitting it hard more often than just about any other regular player right now.
Using our free Trends tool, you’ll see that when a player has a Distance Differential of at least +40 feet and a Hard Hit Differential of at least +15 percentage points and is playing in a game in which his team is projected to score at least 4.7 runs, he (on average) has had Plus/Minus of +2.90 on DraftKings with an excellent 58.3-percent Consistency.
Matthew Freedman: John Lackey, CHC, SP
I know that there could be weather complications, so monitor that status of the game closely. Also, this.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA and Euro Tour.
