In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our FREE Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? [Editor’s Note: Too busy to think of something clever.]
John Daigle: Kyle Hendricks, CHC, SP
Hendricks probably isn’t on the same pedestal as Zack Greinke and Jacob deGrom at first glance, but Philadelphia is implied to score 0.5 fewer runs than any other offense tonight. That’s likely because, per our advanced stats, Hendricks has a batted-ball distance allowed of 173 feet and exit velocity allowed of 85 miles per hour, both of which are the best in the slate.
Some people (Spoiler Alert: Bill Monighetti) will say that Greinke has a better matchup, and that’s arguably true, as the Rays are projected with .264 strikeouts per at-bat. But Greinke is much more volatile and his floor much more uncertain, given his 40-percent Dud rate in the last month.
Meanwhile, Hendricks has 8.43 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) and Greinke has an almost identical 8.44. Of the two, Hendricks is the/my preferred option, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 98-percent Bargain Rating.
Bargain Rating and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool. Also, for more recommendations regarding today’s slate, check out John’s Slate Breakdown, coming soon.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
J.J. Calle: Jung-ho Kang, PIT, 3B
This suggestion is more anti-deGrom than it is pro-Kang.
deGrom gets the nod during the second game of today’s doubleheader. Per our free Trends tool, we can see that, regardless of whether he is favored, deGrom has done horribly in night games on the road in his career, with -3.43 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and -5.86 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. The count of 20 represents a third of his career starts, and he has posted a 5-8 record and a 4.31 earned run average in such contests.
In exposing deGrom’s kryptonite, I’m suggesting Kang because he leads the Pirates with a .399 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), .234 Isolated Power (ISO), and .550 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers. deGrom has allowed 17 of his 27 career home runs in road night tilts, and Kang catapulted two homers out of PNC Park this past week amid humid conditions.
Kang benefits from a projected wind of 12 miles per hour blowing out to left-center field tonight, and his advanced stats over the past 15 days compare favorably to his year-long averages. Among regular third basemen, Kang’s hard-hit percentage and exit velocity rank second over the past 15 days, and his $3,500 salary on DraftKings gives him a 70-percent Bargain Rating.
Tyler Buecher: Hyun-Soo Kim, BAL, OF
If you’re looking to find some salary relief tonight on FanDuel, look no further than Kim, who has an 86-percent Bargain Rating at $2,700. However, Kim’s not just a cheap dart throw on tonight’s 15-game slate. He boasts one of the highest wOBAs (.421) and wOBA Differentials (.191) among all outfielders, as the lefty takes on the right-handed throwing Yordana Ventura.
Kim’s not only a good play for his consistent ability to get on base, but he also has the potential for extra base hits after elevating his hard-hit rate to 50 percent. As evidenced by his recent 95-MPH exit velocity, Kim is seeing the ball very well right now, and Ventura’s 1.417 WHIP suggests that he is struggling to keep batters off the bases.
The opening Vegas line for Baltimore has already moved up 0.4 runs since its debut, and the Orioles are currently projected for five runs. The top outfielder in both the Bales and CSURAM88 Models, Kim makes for an affordable play with terrific potential tonight in Camden Yards.
Bill Monighetti: Zack Greinke, ARI, SP
Nobody thought Greinke was going to repeat the numbers from his stellar 2015 campaign, but I don’t think that many people were expecting what we’ve seen either. A week into June, his ERA is well above 4.00. Interestingly, his 2016 Expected Field Independent Pitching (xFIP) is only 0.13 points higher than last season’s mark, and his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) allowed is nearly 100 points higher in 2016. So if we believe that positive regression is coming, maybe it starts today against the Tampa Bay Rays.
On the season, the Rays are striking out at the second-highest rate against right-handed pitching, and that is reflected in Greinke’s slate-high 7.7 K Prediction. And although the Rays have been one of the more surprising power teams this season, they should be limited by Greinke’s 0.72 home runs allowed, which is second behind Aaron Sanchez among today’s qualifying starters.
Vegas is buying Greinke, listing him as a -165 favorite. Unfortunately, DraftKings is buying Greinke as well. His $11,900 salary there is the highest it has been all season. For that reason, Greinke is the better play on FanDuel, where his 93-percent Bargain Rating is second only to that of Kyle Hendricks. A cash-game play due to his favorable Vegas forecast and a tournament play due to his K Prediction, Greinke is viable in all formats today.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA and Euro Tour.
