In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our FREE Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? Answer: _________________
John Daigle: Evan Longoria, TB, 3B
Longoria is sure to have unusually high ownership because of his recent play — but his recent play has been immaculate:
Additionally, per our advanced stats, Longoria’s 256-foot recent batted-ball distance trails only Jung-ho Kang’s at third base. Of the the two, Longoria is the better value, since his .581 slugging percentage is also accompanied by a 95-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.
At the same time, you shouldn’t be deterred from rostering him at DraftKings, where he is, despite his $5,100 salary, the highest-Rated third baseman in the CSURAM88 model.
Bargain Rating and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool. Also, check out John’s Slate Breakdown for more recommendations regarding today’s slate.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Bryan Mears: Jon Lester, CHC, SP
Sometimes, it is very difficult to pick only one starting pitcher for FanDuel cash games. Sometimes, Vegas makes it easy.
Tonight, Jon Lester is facing the Phillies, who are projected for a slate-low 3.1 runs. Further, he has a massive -234 moneyline and is getting 88 percent of the moneyline bets. For reference, a -234 moneyline is equivalent to 70.1-percent implied odds to win the game. On FanDuel, where you get an extra 12 points for a win, that is a major factor in cash games.
As it happens, on FanDuel Lester has a 75-percent Bargain Rating, so even though he is $1,300 more expensive than the next two highest-priced pitchers in Steven Matz and Masahiro Tanaka, he is still appropriately (if not under-) priced.
If you aren’t sold on Lester based on his Vegas numbers and FD pricing, how about his WHIP and strikeout potential? His 1.027 WHIP is the best of tonight’s slate and his 8.3 K Prediction is also the highest, despite his having a lower K/9 than other pitchers like Chris Archer. The Phillies are a great matchup for starting pitchers — as shown by their 0.293 projected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) — and Lester should take full advantage of it tonight.
Kelly McCann: Carlos Beltran, NYY, OF
Our Park Factor metric looks at the historic percentile rank of a ballpark’s hitter-friendliness, adjusted for handedness. Tonight, batters hitting from the left side of the plate in Yankee Stadium check in with an 81 Park Factor, the highest of the slate. Using our free Trends tool, you’ll see that a Park Factor rating of at least 80 has historically produced a Plus/Minus of +1.12 points above salary-based expectations.
That trend is just one of seven Pro Trends Beltran matches tonight. Additionally, he has also maintained a hard-hit percentage of at least 41 percent over the last fifteen days, which historically has resulted in a +0.26 Plus/Minus. And to top it all off, the Weather Rating in Yankee Stadium tonight is 72, the second best in the slate and good for a +0.81 Plus/Minus.
When those factors are considered alongside Beltran’s already beefy .379 wOBA and .243 Isolated Power (ISO) versus right-handed pitchers, his 84-percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings is even more enticing. Vegas projects the Yankees to score 4.4 runs tonight, the sixth-highest total in tonight’s 10-game slate. Beltran is both an excellent and economical play in the Bronx this evening.
Matthew Freedman: Jurickson Profar, TEX, 2B/SS
The chalkiness of this recommendation does not escape me, but anytime there’s a DraftKings middle infielder priced at $3,300, batting leadoff, and boasting the highest-Rating in both the Bales and CSURAM88 models, he’s going to be an auto-play for me. That’s especially the case when, despite having the slate’s best mix of Consistency and Upside, he has experienced no Salary Change to date.
Slugging .750, Profar is currently exhibiting atypical power for a middle infielder, and with his .112 wOBA and .357 ISO Differentials he is in a very good spot. Profar could be rostered heavily in tournaments, but there might not be a better option for cash games in this slate.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA and Euro Tour.
