In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our FREE Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? Chuck Norris’ karate instructor.
John Daigle: Carlos Gonzalez, COL, OF
Gonzalez produced only 4.0 DraftKings points yesterday, but he was also facing a lefty. With Alfredo Simon on the mound tonight, Gonzalez, who has a .646 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitching, is in a much better spot.
Although CarGo’s .156 and .142 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Isolated Power (ISO) Differentials aren’t the highest among outfielders, both are respectably ranked in the top three. Further, he has a position-best .427 wOBA, which is .015 greater than that of next-best Robbie Grossman. And despite his overnight +$900 Salary Change, Gonzalez has earned the extra money, with a +6.93 Plus/Minus over the last 10 games.
Plus/Minus, Salary Change, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Gonzalez will likely have a high ownership — he has been owned in at least 30 percent of lineups in all major tournaments over the past couple of nights — but Gonzalez’s 10 Pro Trends make him worthy of consideration in all formats.
Check out John’s Slate Breakdown for more recommendations regarding today’s slate.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Bryan Mears: Manny Machado, BAL, 3B/SS
Despite averaging only 5.4 DraftKings points in his last five games, Machado (per our advanced stats) has a batted-ball distance that is way up recently. Like way up. His average batted-ball distance is 252 feet — a whole 36 feet farther than Mookie Betts’ 15-day batted-ball distance. And in case you’ve been living under a rock the last couple of days Mookie has hit approximately 3,000 (or five) home runs.
Machado’s other advanced stats are in sync with his batted-ball distance: His hard-hit rate of 44 percent, average airtime of 3.38 seconds, and fly-ball rate of 52 percent all suggest that he is in great recent form, even if the results (in the form of fantasy points) have been a little volatile lately.
But, because of that volatility, you have the chance to roster Machado and his elite advanced stats at a slight discount, as he has experienced a -$100 Salary Change in the last month.
Be sure to check out Bryan’s Trend of the Day for details on other hitters who have compelling metrics in their favor.
J.J. Calle: Alex Rodriguez, NYY, 1B/3B
Since last season, left-handed pitcher Matt Boyd has allowed 19 home runs in 13 starts, and Rodriguez leads the Yankees with 0.064 home runs per plate appearance against southpaws over the past 12 months. Intriguingly, both of his stolen bases this season have come against left-handed starters. [Editor’s Note: Of course, we’ve known for a while that when it comes to playing the game, A-Rod doesn’t mind taking risks.]
Rodriguez’s recent advanced stats don’t bode well for his outlook, nor does his active 2-for-20 skid intermingled with frequent rest days. Nonetheless, Rodriguez is in a good spot, as he gets to face a batting practice-caliber pitcher with the wind projected to blow out to left field at eight miles per hour. Per our Trends tool, under the aforementioned weather conditions in Comerica Park, right-handed hitters have historically enjoyed a +1.03 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +1.41 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
You may be scared away from Rodriguez on DraftKings due to his 29 percent Bargain Rating. However, when his Bargain Rating has failed to exceed the 40th percentile (sample size of 103), Rodriguez has met expected value 51.5 percent of the time and produced a +1.62 Plus/Minus. Conversely, his $2,900 price tag on FanDuel has historically resulted in a +2.76 Plus/Minus, based on his relative Bargain Rating.
With the Yankees currently implied to score 4.6 runs (the second-highest mark on the main slate if you disregard the battle at Coors Field), Rodriguez can provide uniqueness to your DK lineup by assigning him to first base.
Tyler Buecher: Odubel Herrera, PHI, OF
In the midst of a six-game losing streak, the Phillies will try to get back on track tonight at home against the Brewers. Helping their chances is a matchup against righty Chase Anderson, whom the Phils lit up and smoked for eight hits and six earned runs over four innings in their previous matchup.
Particularly intriguing for the Phils is Herrera, who is projected to bat leadoff.
Herrera’s .388 wOBA ranks top-five among outfielders on tonight’s slate, and with a 92-MPH exit velocity and 42-percent fly-ball rate he definitely has the potential to go yard. Additionally, of the slate’s pitchers Anderson has allowed the second-most home runs per nine innings, and he also has a low 48-percent strike rate.
Finally, over the last 15 days, Herrera has increased his batted-ball distance and hard-hit rate (+16 feet and +4 percentage points), making him perhaps the right player at the right time to capitalize on today’s matchup.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA and Euro Tour.
