In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s main slate.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? Jaqen H’ghar’s long-lost twin.
John Daigle: Giancarlo Stanton, MIA, OF
Death, taxes, and Giancarlo Stanton against left-handing pitching: I think that’s how the saying goes. One of those might be more volatile than the others, but all three signify “the end.” Death marks the end of life. Taxes signal the end of a financial season. And Stanton augurs the end of Arizona pitcher Robbie Ray.
If you have any doubts, look no further than Stanton’s slugging and Isolated Power (ISO) of .607/.911, both which lead his position. He also has an ISO Differential of .315. As if that weren’t enough, Ray’s batted-ball distance allowed over the last two weeks is 27 feet further than that of any other pitcher. There aren’t truly any guarantees in baseball, but I’d rather pay taxes than be Ray on the mound tonight in Miami.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations for today in his slate breakdown.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Bryan Mears: Jacob deGrom, NYM, SP
I’m personally still working out how to interpret our awesome, new advanced statistics found in our Trends tool and Player Models. Some of it is straightforward: Josh Donaldson has a recent hard-hit rate of 54 percent, which is 14 percentage points than his 12-month average. The data makes it clear that Donaldson is crushing the ball.
But what about recent advanced pitcher data? Because of the small sample size — they get fewer appearances than hitters get at-bats — interpreting the data can be hard. Take Jacob deGrom, for instance. In comparison to how has thrown over the last year, deGrom has thrown 3.1 miles per hour slower over his last two starts. What does that data mean? Is that just randomness due to a small sample? Or is there something truly wrong with deGrom?
This is where the personalized nature of DFS comes into play: Data can get you only so far. We stress all the time that our tools are meant for you to experiment with and use. Our Player Models tool is not just an optimizer. Data requires context and nuance, and that is what separates the pros from the joes. So the question is this: How are you going to interpret deGrom’s recent velocity woes?
Check out Bryan’s Trend of the Day.
Tyler Buecher: J.T. Realmuto, MIA, C
We don’t often discuss catchers in our Plays of the Day article, so I felt that it was time to give back to our brothers behind the plate. Realmuto has been on a tear as of late with an eight-game hitting streak for the Marlins. Realmuto has increased his hard-hit percentage by four percentage points and his batted-ball distance by 12 feet over the past 15 days as we have moved out of the cold days of April. Now, Realmuto gets to play at home in a slate-high projected temperature of 77 degrees.
Out of pitchers in tonight’s slate, Arizona’s Robbie Ray has the third-lowest strike rate over his past two games, throwing only 44 percent of his pitches for strikes and struggling with his command, as evidenced by his 1.431 WHIP. Batting leadoff for the Marlins, Realmuto has one of the lowest SO/9 rates at his position and should be able to reach base in a game in which Miami is projected to score 4.4 runs. Realmuto’s salaries — $3,000 FanDuel and $3,500 DraftKings — have gone up $800 and $400 respectively and could lead to a low lineup percentage, offering nice tournament appeal for tonight’s nine-game slate.
Matthew Freedman: Alex Presley, MIL, OF
Two of the last three days, Presley has started in place of the injured Domingo Santana, who has shoulder tightness. Given that the Brewers are facing right-hander Alfredo Simon in today’s slate, the left-handed Presley could get one more start in place of the right-handed Santana. If that happens, you should give him consideration, as he is currently the second- and sixth-highest-rated outfielder in the Bales and CSURAM88 models on DraftKings, where he has a meager $2,000 salary, 94 percent Bargain Rating, and respectable total of six Pro Trends.
If starting, Presley will likely be one of the top-two batters for a Brewers lineup with an implied Vegas total of 4.5 runs, so he will have some potential. With only 0.04 home runs per at-bat, Presley isn’t much of a power hitter, but has a beneficial Park Factor of 61 and the wind is expected to blow out to right at eight MPH. Plus, over the last 15 days he has a batted-ball distance of 240 feet and a fly-ball percentage of 50 percent. And over that timespan he has positive differentials for batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. He’s hitting the ball well right now.
Over the last fantasy month, Presley hasn’t gotten a lot of action, but he has been above a negative Plus/Minus with 50 percent Consistency and still hasn’t experienced any sort of Salary Change, so we’re not paying for any past production. As a source of salary relief, Presley could be a good option for cash games and tournaments — if he starts. Be sure to keep an eye out for his status as we get closer to game time.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.
