In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s main slate.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? It’s more like, “Who isn’t he?!”
John Daigle: Matt Harvey, NYM, SP
Batman or Superman. MJ or LeBron. Bunk or McNulty. Matt Harvey or Jake Arrieta. They’re all terrific options. The only difference between that last pairing and all the others is that you need to choose who you prefer by tonight. As it pertains to cash games, Harvey trumps Arrieta (if only in this slate) in a myriad of ways.
The Braves strikeout in “only” 20.4 percent of their at-bats against right-handed pitching, but they’ve accumulated a .065 Isolated Power (ISO) versus said handedness, the lowest team total this season. Harvey has also been a bit unlucky to date, as shown by his BABIP allowed of .352. (Even the most elite hitters in the league tend to settle around .350.) Even Vegas is throwing in the towel, as Harvey (implied to allow 0.1 more runs than Arrieta) still has a slate-best -230 moneyline.
If Bunk were pitching, he’d be my choice. But he’s not, which leaves Harvey as the strongest option tonight, especially in cash games.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations for today in his slate breakdown.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Bryan Mears: Lorenzo Cain, KC, OF
My play is less about one player (Lorenzo Cain), and more about a bigger point. Often, whether I’m making a recommendation in a Plays of the Day article or researching for a slate, I often look at our advanced stats for positivity: Which players have been crushing the ball? Michael Conforto has a hard-hit rate of 54 percent, which is up 10 percentage points from last year? Sign me up! [Editor’s Note: Keep reading for our obligatory Conforto recommendation.]
That sort of analysis is important. But it’s also easy. What is harder is finding a player like Cain, someone who is struggling, and figuring out why he’s struggling. At this point, we might be getting a little value from Conforto, but probably not much, since by now everyone knows that he has been amazing this year. Instead, the real value lies in finding a struggling player who could perhaps turn it around.
So let’s look at Cain, who has a batted-ball differential of -40 feet over the last 15 days. Why isn’t he hitting the ball as well? There’s no definitive answer, but we can do a bit more research, as was done here by SB Nation’s Royals Review, who found that Cain’s BABIP is down this year (.255). They also found that his contact rate is down. In fact, his drop of 13.1 percentage points in contact rate is the largest drop in MLB this year. Further, Kansas City Star writer Rustin Dodd mused that Cain is being pitched to differently. Do you think that Cain’s low contact rate and the way he’s being pitched to will remain steady for the rest of the season?
Don’t focus only on the good plays: Find struggling players, do your research, and get ahead of the game.
Check out the rest of Bryan’s recommendations in today’s MLB Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
Bill Monighetti: Miguel Sano, MIN, 3B/OF
We can more or less disregard lefty-righty splits with Sano, whose Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) vs. righties differs from his wOBA vs. lefties by only .003. Additionally, today he faces Collin McHugh, whose career wOBA allowed is .003 higher for righties than lefties. When Sano bats against McHugh, handedness will be almost irrelevant.
Per Sano’s advanced stats, he has been playing very well of late. Sano’s recent batted-ball distance (254 feet) and exit velocity (95 miles per hour) are both safely above his overall averages for the last 12 months. Further, his 29 percent line-drive ratio over the past year is second only to Brandon Belt’s among regular starters on today’s slate.
Facing a fly-ball pitcher in McHugh enhances the possibility that one of Sano’s hard-hit balls will leave the yard. Even better for Sano is that McHugh’s strikeout percentage has dropped each of the past three seasons. Historically, when Sano faces a pitcher who ranks no better than in the 45th percentile in strikeouts — where McHugh currently ranks — he adds nearly a point to his Plus/Minus.
Tyler Buecher: Brandon Belt, SF, 1B
We have a plethora of pitching options to choose from tonight, and if you’re looking to save some salary space then Belt offers a nice combination of great recent performance and value. Possessing a 90 percent Bargain Rating, Belt offers the sixth-highest wOBA (.376) and slugging percentage (.510) among first basemen in tonight’s slate. Additionally, Belt is making good contact with the ball: He has a top-five exit velocity on batted balls and a 44 percent hard-hit percentage over the past 15 days.
With Dud performances in only 28 percent of his games — the second-best dud rate on the year at his position — Belt offers a nice floor with the potential for high Upside in tonight’s matchup against Reds right-handed pitcher Jon Moscot, who has the highest WHIP, lowest SO/9, most HR/9 allowed on the slate tonight. Batting fifth in a Giants lineups projected to score 4.8 runs today, Belt should have plenty of opportunity to pick on Moscot.
Brandon Hopper: Matt Adams, STL, 1B
[Editor’s Note: Once more unto the breach, dear friends . . .]
I feel cheap right now. Going with Matt Adams as my play of the day for the second straight day feels like I’m cheating at a poker table (at least that’s what I imagine cheating feels like). He produced 28 points yesterday, going two-for-four with a home run, two runs, and a walk. On his dong, he kept his hands back on a 74 MPH breaking ball and drilled it 412 feet to centerfield. It’s no surprise his average batted-ball distance over the past 15 days is 294 feet (down six feet from yesterday).
His price dropped to $2,200 on FanDuel, so he’s a great value play with tremendous Upside. (Example: yesterday.) Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola has been good lately, but he allows more than a home run per game, and I know a guy willing to hit it.
Copied from yesterday (because when else will I have the opportunity to quote myself?):
I don’t see any reason that Mike Matheny wouldn’t have him in the lineup, but reading Matheny’s mind isn’t something I’m keen on trying, either. Just make sure that he’s actually playing before you set your lineup.
If you’re superstitious, you’ll be pleased to know that I’m writing this blurb in the same awkward location in which I wrote yesterday’s predictive masterpiece — the back seat of my man van. No matter what happens, though, I promise not to use Adams as my play of the day tomorrow.
Matthew Freedman: Michael Conforto, NYM, OF
I’m not trying to be original. Socrates was original. Eventually, he was tried, convicted, and executed for corrupting the youth and impiety. Rostering Conforto in cash games is maybe the most uncorrupt and pious decision one can make for this slate. With a $3,700 salary on DraftKings, Conforto is highly affordable with a 96 percent Bargain Rating. It’s just a bonus that he leads all of the slate’s batters with 13 Pro Trends and is the second- and fourth-highest-rated outfielder in the Bales and CSURAM88 models.
Per our advanced data, out of all batters who have played more than five games in the last 15 days, Conforto leads the slate with a 54 percent hard-hit percentage, and his recent 94 MPH exit velocity is also impressive. Additionally, he’s on something of a hot streak, with positive differentials for batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage.
Over the last month, Conforto has had a great blend of Consistency and Upside, achieving a positive Plus/Minus in 50 percent of his games. Best of all, Conforto has experienced a Salary Change of only +$100, so you’re not paying much of a premium for past production.
In the words of the immortal Starsky & Hutch . . .
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and every Wednesday for PGA.
