In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our FREE Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? He’s someone who can make onions cry.
John Daigle: Steven Matz, NYM, SP
If you’re one that prioritizes dependability in cash games, look no further than Matz tonight. Chicago’s projected .241 strikeouts per at-bat rate is admittedly subpar in comparison to other offenses in this slate, but not even Jake Arrieta can claim the same Consistency that Matz has produced this past month.
After all, Matz is one of only two pitchers to have exceeded salary-based expectations in 100 percent of his performances in that span. His 78 percent Consistency on the season is quietly six percent higher than Arrieta’s. And following the extended rest he received not too long ago, Matz has since toyed with opponents, allowing a meddling five percent line-drive rate.
Jose Fernandez has averaged 2.3 more DraftKings points than Matz in the last month, but the latter’s +11.49 Plus/Minus in his last seven games reigns supreme.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations in today’s Slate Breakdown.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Bryan Mears: Ian Kinsler, DET, 2B
In a slate that includes Coors Field, the smoking-hot Carlos Gonzalez, the dominant Jake Arrieta, and the strikeout-machine Jose Fernandez, why in the world would you pay $5,200 on DraftKings for Ian Kinsler?
The answer, of course, is because you like winning DFS tournaments.
Tournaments are not about optimizing a lineup; Kinsler, compared to the plays I mentioned above, is not the “optimal” play by any means. However, he does have a ton of Upside, as shown by his .590 slugging percentage. His advanced stats paint a similar portrait: His recent batted-ball distance of 252 feet and recent hard-hit rate of 40 percent all point to a very hot hitter.
However, his Salary Change of +$900 in the last month, combined with the fact that there are so many good plays tonight, means that you can get that hot bat and Upside of Kinsler for likely low ownership. While everyone pays up for pitching or CarGo, go contrarian and pay for Kinsler.
Be sure to check out the MLB Daily Fantasy Flex Podcast for tonight’s Main Slate.
Bryan Mears: Drew Smyly, TB, SP
(Yes, you’re getting a bonus play from Bryan today.)
Having allowed 15 earned runs in his last four starts, it is safe to say that Smyly has been struggling a bit lately. However, he does have some factors going in his favor tonight.
Most notably, the Royals’ projected wOBA today is a slate-low .255, while their projected SO/AB is .270, a mark that is sixth-best (for Smyly, that is). Also, Smyly has Bob Davidson behind home plate tonight, who has historically added 1.4 points over expectations to pitchers, the best mark tonight.
Again, the results haven’t been good lately and he hasn’t gone that far into the game either; he hasn’t made it over six innings since late April. However, if you’re looking for a contrarian tournament play — one that perhaps lets you afford some Coors bats — we’ve seen Upside from Smyly in 2015 and even early this year that makes him an interesting choice for GPPs.
Matthew Freedman: Zack Cozart, CIN, SS
As the leadoff hitter of a team with an implied Vegas total of 4.8 runs, Cozart has a lot going for him: On DraftKings, he leads the shortstop position with the best combination of Pro Trends and Bargain Rating, with eight and 91 percent, respectively. And playing at Coors Field, he has a Park Factor of 100 and a hitter-friendly umpire in Mark Wegner behind the plate, who historically adds a +0.4 Plus/Minus to batter performance.
In theory, there are two factors going against Cozart, both of which actually might benefit him. First, the Reds-Rockies game (per our Player Models) has a 62 percent chance of precipitation. So Cozart is definitely not certain to play a full game in this slate. At the same time, the possibility of rain might make Cozart a fine ownership arbitrage play. The opportunity to get a highly-rated Coors batter at reduced ownership is at least intriguing, even if that player is at risk of not playing.
Secondly, some people might fade the Reds because they are +157 moneyline underdogs — but they are underdogs primarily because they have one of the worst (and definitely the cheapest) pitcher in the slate starting for them in Jon Moscot. And yet, as intuitive as it might seem to dislike batters because their pitcher is horrible, historically batters with subpar starting pitchers tend to outperform expectations because of the hidden value of Gray Swan-esque pinch hitters. In effect, the worse Moscot is and the sooner he leaves the game, the better that is for Cozart and the rest of the Reds hitters.
As one of the highest-rated shortstops in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models, Cozart makes for a decent play on his own and as part of a stack. Just be sure to monitor his situation as we get closer to game time. He’s a risky option because of the weather, but he has a lot of potential.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.
