In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our FREE Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? He’s someone who can kill two stones with one bird.
John Daigle: Julio Urias, LAD, SP
What I love most about rookie debuts is that the moment tends to captivate an infinite ceiling. We’re all big winners in Vegas until we actually arrive, and rookies are all phenoms until we can assign actual averages to their profession. But for tonight — right now — Julio Urias can do no wrong.
If you haven’t heard of Urias before, his numbers in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League — 44 strikeouts in 41 innings pitched — might frighten you. If you have heard of him, his 1.10 ERA and 0.78 WHIP probably still frighten you. (And all at the age of 19, mind you.) But all of that has somehow led him to be dropped in an immaculate spot against a Mets offense that’s tied for the highest strikeout percentage against lefties. Their projected .279 wOBA is also fortuitously bottom-four in this slate.
Felix Hernandez will be the highest-owned player in cash games (and rightfully so), but Urias offers a similar ceiling for nearly half the cost.
Well, scratch that. As of this moment, he has no ceiling.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations in today’s Slate Breakdown.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Bryan Mears: Trevor Story, COL, SS
Here are some things going for Trevor Story tonight: He is playing in Coors Field, he has the highest ISO among everyday shortstops, and he is hitting the ball, on average, 236 feet. Here is one thing that is going against Trevor Story tonight and will likely affect his tournament ownership percentage: His salary.
Story is $5,400 at DraftKings, which is only $100 less than uber-talented players Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. He is more expensive than David Ortiz, Chris Davis, Jose Bautista … you get the point. He is certainly a premium tonight, which is fine if you can answer this one question: Is he worth it?
We can break that into two questions, really. The first is whether he is worth it in terms of actual baseball upside. And I think his advanced stats and ISO make that a resounding “yes.” The next is whether he is worth it in terms of ownership. And I believe the answer to that is definitely “yes” as well.
One thing I have been noticing lately in Coors slates is that the top-priced hitters — especially Arenado lately — are usually less owned than their situation says they should be. DraftKings prices them high, and you have to make a concession as a DFS player; do you pay for them or pay for pitching? The answer often this season has been the latter, which makes the former even more intriguing in tournaments.
Be sure to check out the MLB Daily Fantasy Flex Podcast for tonight’s Main Slate.
Mitchell Block: Felix Hernandez, SEA, SP
If you’ve followed my KBXE stuff at all this year, you likely already know Hernandez is the bane of my existence. He’s consistently broken the model, bucking the trend of the negative regression that has continually been projected for him. Despite a SIERA and xFIP sitting above 4.0 and the fact that he lacks the elite strikeout potential of others around his price point, Hernandez has still managed to exceed his implied point total 60% of the time this season on FanDuel.
Tonight he’ll be rewarded with a matchup against the Twins and their meager 3.63 runs per game (27th in the league). Hernandez is currently the biggest favorite of the night, making him a good bet for the all-important win on FanDuel, where he has an 80% Bargain Rating. Vegas has the Mariners projected to score 4.5 runs against the inept Pat Dean, which should provide Hernandez with ample run support to aid in securing the victory.
While lack of strikeout potential has often been a concern for the veteran this season, our K Predictor has him pegged with the fifth-highest prediction on this large slate of Friday games. If you needed any additional persuasion, Hernandez also checks in with the most Pro Trends (nine) among starting pitchers on FanDuel (well, technically he’s tied with Max Scherzer, a solid play in his own right, but you get the gist).
For more Mitch Magic, check out his KBXE Review.
Matthew Freedman: Jonathan Villar, MIL, SS
Per our advanced stats, Villar has positive Distance, Exit Velocity, and Hard-Hit Differentials over the last 15 days, and his 44-percent hard-hit rate in that timeframe leads his position. With a .398 wOBA versus lefties and a positional-best 0.257 stolen bases per game, Villar has the potential to reach his salary-based expectation in a variety of ways.
Of course, Villar is playing in a game with a 66-percent chance of precipitation and wind expected to blow in at 10 miles per hour. The weather is unfortunate — but it also might make Villar something of an ownership arbitrage play in tournaments.
He has experienced a +$1,300 Salary Change over the last month, so he’s definitely not available at a discount, but his blend of Consistency and Upside over that period make him a desirable option in guaranteed prize pools.
———
The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.
