In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? He’s not John Daigle.
John Daigle: Scott Kazmir, LAA, SP
The pitching options in the main slate are about as unappetizing as the food I eat on a daily basis — but we’ve gotta eat, amirite? In a world of discount fast-food quarter-pounders, Kazmir is a grass-fed half-pound steak burger.
In his last outing, Kazmir walked seven batters, but it was only the third time all year that he has walked more than one hitter. Also, he gets to face the Reds, who have a slate-low implied Vegas total of 3.3 runs and a bottom-six walk percentage against left-handed pitching.
Fortunately for Kazmir, the Reds’ also have the slate’s fourth-worst projected strikeouts per at-bat. And, unfortunately for Cincinnati, Kazmir’s exit velocity of 85 miles per hour (per our advanced stats) as well as his 11-percent hard-hit rate are both the lowest allowed among pitchers in the last 15 days.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations in today’s Slate Breakdown.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Bryan Mears: Chris Davis, BAL, 1B
Chris Davis versus David Ortiz is an interesting debate tonight. Their Isolated Powers (ISOs) are nearly identical: Ortiz has an ISO of .360 against right-handed pitching and Crush is at .368 against RHP.
Because they are fairly similar in some regards, how they differ is all the more important: Ortiz has a higher Vegas total but is $1,000 more expensive, while Davis is cheaper but is also facing groundball pitcher Collin McHugh.
You could look to differentiate between the two by analyzing their recent advanced stats, but they’re both (similarly) crushing the ball lately: Ortiz has a hard-hit rate of 52 percent, which Davis barely trails at 50 percent.
This is why DFS is fun. These are two guys who are pretty much even in every regard tonight. How you approach them in tournaments will largely dictate your success. What will be your differentiating factor? Will it be Davis’ better Park Factor Rating? Or will it be Ortiz’s stack potential on the loaded Red Sox? I’m leaning toward Davis, but maybe this is the correct take . . .
For more of Bryan’s recommendations, check out today’s MLB Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
Bill Monighetti: Brian McCann, NYY, C
I use custom trends all the time to remind myself that certain players have large handedness and home/away splits. One such trend is “Brian McCann vs. R at home.” When McCann faces a right-handed pitcher at Yankee Stadium, he typically has had a +2.31 Plus/Minus on FanDuel:
How much does McCann love hitting at home? The below split shows his numbers against right-handers at home versus away. Even when on the right side of his handedness split, McCann has been a negative value play on the road.
Obviously, I wouldn’t be telling you all of this unless McCann matched the criteria today. Opposing pitcher Marco Estrada is a fine overall player and someone we don’t need to go out of our way to target generally. However, his 44.4-percent fly-ball rate this season ranks eighth among qualifiers. That may present a problem at Yankee Stadium, where lefty batters benefit from an 81 Park Factor, thanks in part to the short porch in right field. And if you’re going to target lefty bats in this game, who better to play than McCann . . . who is facing a righty . . . at home?
Matthew Freedman: Dan Straily, CIN, SP
I’m basically doubling down on yesterday’s recommendation. I’m (obviously) not suggesting that you use a pitcher who isn’t even playing, but I’m recommending the same situation and strategy.
Like Reds pitcher Daniel Wright yesterday, Straily is an inexpensive option who should be rostered in a relatively low percentage of FD tournament lineups, in part because the Reds are +151 moneyline underdogs against the Dodgers.
But Straily matches for a trend suggesting that he might be slightly undervalued, and he actually has the slate’s highest K Prediction.
Based on the Vegas odds as well as Cincinnati’s nine-game losing streak, I believe that Straily will be rostered in a percentage of tournament lineups far lower than his percentage odds of actually reaching value, given his seasonal production:
As I said yesterday of Wright, the ignored Straily represents an exploitable opportunity to practice ownership arbitrage. Hopefully it works out today.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.
