In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? The answer is blowing in the wind.
John Daigle: David Price, BOS, SP
It’s not often that an ace has a -$2,500 DraftKings Salary Change in the course of one month, but, alas, Price has. And that’s despite the fact that, per our advanced stats, he has a -10 percent Hard-Hit Differential in the last 15 days.
Stephen Strasburg and Chris Sale admittedly have better matchups — the Mets and Indians are projected with .267 and .251 strikeouts per at-bat; Colorado, only .238 — but Price remains the better overall package. His exit velocity is actually tied with Strasburg’s for the lowest allowed in the last 15 days, but Price’s aforementioned dip in salary makes him a steal at DK, where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating. He’s also the clear cut favorite in Vegas tonight, receiving 91 percent of moneyline bets.
The Rockies’ .309 projected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is certainly respectable, but not anything that Price’s 12 Pro Trends can’t overcome.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations in today’s Slate Breakdown.
The Remaining Plays of the Day (Boston Edition)
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Bryan Mears: Jackie Bradley, BOS, OF
First, take a look at Bradley’s recent game log:
If you glance at the column labeled “H” for “Hits,” you will notice that there are no zeros anywhere to be found.
Bradley’s a unique MLB DFS player. Boston insists on hitting him low in the order, usually in the seventh spot. That’s fine — except that he’s expensive. He is $4,000 on DK today (despite a 94 percent Bargain Rating there). He was even over $5,000 a week or so ago. As DFS users, we’re fine paying a high premium for guys who bat high in the order. Usually there exists a combination of talent and plate-attempt opportunities to warrant such a price.
With Bradley, though, we must rely on talent only. However, his hitting streak as well as his advanced stats suggest that rostering Bradley is a fine decision. His recent hard-hit rate sits at 40 percent. That is only a four-percent increase from his usual mark, but his baseline, of course, is important to remember. A good hitter staying good is just as important as a bad hitter getting hot.
As it is, he’s also very hot right now. His recent Consistency is at a very high 69 percent. Don’t be scared by his low spot in the batting order: Bradley is a great cash-game and tournament option today.
Tyler Buecher: Chris Young, BOS, OF
A 14-game slate filled with some pricey pitchers will force us to find value among our bats in tonight’s lineups. The Red Sox will be a popular team to target in stacks against the struggling lefty Jorge De La Rosa. And one way to differentiate from the typical 1-4 or 2-5 stacks could be to look at the back half of Boston’s lineup, particularly Young.
Sporting a .395 wOBA and .210 ISO, Young has fared well against lefties to date this season. His 10 Pro Trends lead all outfielders on the slate tonight and he has some nice recent advanced stats that make him an intriguing play. Looking at his advanced stats over the past 15 days, Young has raised his hard-hit percentage, exit velocity, and distance on batted balls during the month of May.
Given Young’s recent power surge and 54-percent fly-ball rate, there’s a chance that we could see him go yard tonight. At only $2,500 on FanDuel, Young is a great way to get exposure to the Red Sox, who have a very high projection of 5.3 runs.
The Non-Boston, Non-Kershaw Play of the Day
Matthew Freedman: Daniel Wright, CIN, SP
Yesterday, I made the chalkiest cash game recommendation of all time in Clayton Kershaw. Of course, #TurboTrend performed well, but today I will embody the pendulum and swing as far in the other direction as possible with perhaps the most contrarian tournament recommendation possible.
Wright is very cheap on both DFS platforms, but I especially like him on FD, where he should be rostered in an especially low percentage of lineups, as he’s highly unlikely to get the win against the Dodgers, in part because he’s making his major-league debut and the Dodgers’ implied Vegas total is 1.2 runs greater than that of the Reds.
But Wright has these three factors going for him:
- He matches for a trend suggesting that he might be slightly undervalued.
- He is the cheapest pitcher in the slate and an excellent source of salary relief.
- He could be the lowest-rostered pitcher in the entire slate.
What do you think the odds are that Wright wins his matchup or meets value? Remember, opposing pitcher Mike Bolsinger is nothing special and could easily find a way to lose the game. Also, keep in mind that Wright has a very respectable K Prediction Rate of 79 percent.
Let’s say that Wright has anywhere from a two to five percent chance of having a non-negative Plus/Minus in this game. And he will probably be rostered in maybe one percent of tournament lineups?
In other words, he represents an exploitable opportunity to practice ownership arbitrage.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.
