In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? He’s someone who holds the door.
John Daigle: Ryan Howard, PHI, 1B
Mike Pelfrey has allowed a respectable 195-foot batted-ball distance in his last two starts (per our advanced stats), but don’t let that fool you. Even Ben Affleck turned in a great performance twice. (Good Will Hunting and Argo, in case you were wondering, although I also would’ve accepted his eight-second cameo from Curb Your Enthusiasm as an answer. Yes, the one where he doesn’t talk.)
[Editor’s Note: His performance as the *sshole O’Bannion in Dazed and Confused is also strong, although we’re not sure how much Affleck actually needs to “act” for that role.]
Philadelphia isn’t taken all too seriously against right-handed pitching, but that’s all the more reason to pay for Howard. His .165 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) Differential is the highest among starting first basemen. His recent exit velocity is the fourth-highest. And he still has a 93 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.
The Phillies aren’t just a bunch of mallrats intending to play reindeer games tonight. They, with Howard as their catalyst, will certainly bring armageddon to Pelfrey in some form or another.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations in today’s Slate Breakdown.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Jay Persson: Enrique (Kike) Hernandez, LAD, OF
I am just going to assume that you’re playing Clayton Kershaw tonight. If this is the case — and it’s the only logical decision — then you need to save some serious salary on your hitters.
I don’t mean to go all Bob Ryan-to-E on you, but if I told you that you could easily afford a guy who has the second-highest wOBA Differential on the slate, would that be something you might be interested in? Hernandez has a .408 wOBA against left-handed pitchers — behind only Giancarlo Stanton — and is priced at just $2,100 on FD with a Bargain Rating of 82 percent. Projected to hit leadoff, as is the norm against lefties, Kike is a great way to get exposure to the Dodgers (implied at 4.4 runs) while providing much-needed salary relief.
When Kike faces a lefty and hits leadoff, he has historically exceeded expectation by 3.92 points. This value is strengthened even more by the fact that there are only a handful of players hitting atop the order who are priced under $2,500 on FD. It’s not realistic to pair Kershaw with higher-priced hitters. Instead, start building your team with Kershaw and your value hitters and then fill in the rest of the positions for optimal lineup construction.
Just play Kike, and don’t be a wiseass.
For more of Jay’s recommendations, check out the MLB Daily Fantasy Flex, coming soon.
Bryan Mears: Giancarlo Stanton, MIA, OF
If Freedman is going to take the low-hanging fruit by talking about Kershaw, then, darn it, let’s talk about Stanton.
His recent advanced stats are perhaps a bit troubling — his batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rates are all down — but nothing cures an ailment like Stanton versus a lefty. His .525 ISO against left-handed pitchers is not just good: It’s a whopping .210 points higher than the next best ISO today. That ISO difference is equivalent to Kris Bryant’s ISO against right-handed pitchers. What I’m saying is this: Giancarlo Stanton is an entire Kris Bryant better than the second-best batter on today’s slate. I can’t be any clearer than that.
He is a much better play on FD than DraftKings, as shown by his six percent Bargain Rating on the latter site. If you can somehow get Kershaw and him both into your lineups tonight, do so on any DFS site you play. And if for some reason people are down on him because of recent struggles and that results in lower ownership, all the better. Stanton versus a lefty: Don’t overthink it — just like Kershaw.
To hear Bryan talk about more players besides Kershaw, check out the MLB Daily Fantasy Flex, coming soon.
The Kershaw of the Day
Spoiler Alert: Kershaw recommendation follows.
Matthew Freedman: Clayton Kershaw, LAD, SP
The lower it hangs, the sweeter the fruit. (By the way, that should definitely be Fruit of the Loom’s new underwear slogan.)
#TurboTrend: Historically, when a pitcher is A) averaging at least 6.5 innings pitched per game, B) favored in Vegas with no less than a -200 moneyline, and C) projected in the 90th percentile via our K Predictor, then on average he has finished with +11.05 Plus/Minus on 75.5 percent Consistency.
As you might expect, Kershaw is a current match for the trend, as he was his last start and the start before that, when he scored 66 and 78 points on FD, where he has an 80 percent Bargain Rating and is the only pitcher in the slate with double-digit Pro Trends.
Kershaw is expensive at $13,200, but he’s worth the money. Ironically, despite the expense, he probably provides the most bang for your buck at the position:
Per the Bales and CSURAM88 Models, Kershaw is by far the highest-Rated player (not just pitcher) in the slate.
So play him in cash games — and then owner arbitrage him hard in tournaments.
For more information on starting pitchers who win and throw a lot of innings, check out Matt’s Labyrinthian on the topic.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.
