In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? The Second Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch.
John Daigle: Aaron Nola, PHI, SP
Nola isn’t as recognizable as, say, Steven Matz. And he certainly doesn’t have the pedigree of Jake Arrieta. But he’s also not just a “dumpster dive” or contrarian option. In this slate, Nola is the option.
Like Arrieta, Nola has 80 percent Consistency over his last five starts. The Braves have only an average strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching, but they’re still the only team with an Isolated Power (ISO) below .100. Their implied total has also sunk 0.2 runs since initially opening.
Per our advanced stats, Nola excels with a recent exit velocity of 85 miles per hour and a 175-foot batted-ball distance allowed. Roster Nola at FanDuel, where he has a 97 percent Bargain Rating, and then run away laughing into the night.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations in today’s Slate Breakdown.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Mitchell Block: Hector Santiago, LAA, SP
Rostering Santiago isn’t for the faint-hearted, but if you’re willing to take on a bit of risk then you could get some solid value and salary relief in return. There are a multitude of underlying metrics indicating that he’s worth the risk.
Inexpensive pitchers who A) are favored to win, B) have at least seven strikeouts per nine innings over the last year, and C) experience a negative Salary Change over the previous month historically have a Plus/Minus of +2.38. Also, over the last 15 days Santiago’s batted-ball distance allowed is 40 feet fewer and his pitch velocity is 0.7 MPH faster than his yearly averages.
Although the Orioles offense always has the potential to produce, it has an implied Vegas total of only 3.7 runs and fellow left-handed pitchers have an average Plus/Minus of +0.81 against the Orioles this season. Given that this game is at pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium, Santiago makes for an intriguing, low-cost option who will likely fly under the radar in tonight’s big slate.
For more on inexpensive pitchers with hidden value, check out Mitch’s Trend of the Day.
Bill Monighetti: Aaron Sanchez, TOR, SP
Over his young career, Sanchez has dominated right-handed batters to the tune of a .221 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and 3.16 Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP). He is also excellent at limiting righty power, as he has allowed one (ONE!) measly home run over 92.1 career innings to batters of that handedness.
The reason I’ll probably use the word “righty” at least 10 times over the course of this blurb is that the Twins lineup hoards righty batters as if they were an endangered species. In yesterday’s matchup against righty Marco Estrada, the Twins lineup featured only two lefty batters, Joe Mauer and Oswaldo Arcia.
Sanchez’s dominance against righties is particularly impressive when you consider that he makes half of his starts at the Rogers Centre, a favorable ballpark for right-handed hitters. Today, he will receive a boost from Target Field’s 70 Park Factor for righty pitchers.
Using our advanced stats, you’ll see that his pitch velocity is down a bit, but I don’t find that too concerning. Sanchez was pitching around the same velocity last May before gradually ramping up to 96-97 MPH in August and September. Additionally, his batted-ball distance and groundball percentage remain very strong, even with his velocity decline.
There are several excellent choices at pitcher tonight, so make sure that you don’t overlook Sanchez, who is priced as a midrange option on both sites.
Be sure to check out Bill’s MLB Recent Form Report and also his MLB Trend Testing, coming soon.
Matthew Freedman: Carlos Correa, HOU, SS
Per the Bales and CSURAM88 Models, Correa is the highest-Rated shortstop on DraftKings, where he has a 91 percent Bargain Rating. He is tied with Trevor Story for the position lead with nine Pro Trends and bats third for a team with a slate-high implied total of five runs. Best of all, he has experienced a -$300 Salary Change over the last month, so you’re getting him at a slight discount.
He’s probably not a great option for tournaments — his Upside is limited — but he’s an ideal play for cash games.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.
