In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? The inspiration for the film Top Gun.
John Daigle: Marcus Stroman, TOR, SP
Spoiler Alert: I looked at today’s Plays of the Day in advance to see which aces were claimed. And, much to my surprise, there were none. [Editor’s Note: Sort of.]
But that’s too easy, right? After all, if you wanted to hear how great Clayton Kershaw is, we would just create the Kershaw of the Day. But what if I were to tell you that Kershaw might not be the top play tonight?
Look at Stroman’s peripherals for a moment. His 6.45 strikeouts per nine innings are rather poor, but he’ll be helped by the Rays’ league-leading 26.4 percent strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitchers. He has also induced the highest ground-ball percentage in the last two weeks (per our advanced stats).
Furthermore, while the average velocity on his changeup has plummeted, it has quietly produced a swinging-strike rate that is 8.8 percentage points higher than it was last season. And Tampa Bay? Well, unfortunately for the Rays, their swinging-strike rate is 1.2 percentage points higher than that of any other offense.
Stroman’s no Kershaw or even Madison Bumgarner, but Stroman might just be the overlooked ace of the evening.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations in today’s Slate Breakdown.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Jay Persson: Miguel Cabrera, DET, 1B
After leading the American League in home runs allowed last season, Phil Hughes is striving for the same goal this season. Luckily for us, he faces Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers today. Hughes enters the slate with the highest home runs per innings allowed of all starting pitchers available, as well as the third-lowest strikeouts per nine innings. His fly-ball rate over the past 15 days is at 50 percent, which is the second-highest on the slate. Hughes is also struggling to pitch deep into games, registering the lowest average pitches per game of his career.
Miggy finds himself in a favorable situation, with the Tigers currently having an implied Vegas total of five runs. Hughes has allowed a higher wOBA to righties (than to lefties) throughout his career, and Miggy should be able to capitalize, with his .394 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) vs. RHP. Although Miggy’s advanced stats — batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage — are all down over the past 15 days, he has played 13 of his last 17 games on the road, where he has historically underperformed. Expected to be rostered in a low percentage of lineups, Miggy is a great tournament option as part of a Tigers stack or a stand-alone play.
For other (also obvious) recommendations made by Jay, check out the MLB Daily Fantasy Flex pod.
Brandon Hopper: George Springer, HOU, OF
Springer is crushing the ball lately and has the killer advanced stats to support his production. Over the last 15 days, he has surpassed his yearly averages by 37 feet (batted-ball distance), nine percentage points (hard-hit rate), and four miles per hour (exit velocity).
Additionally, he gets to face White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon, against whom batters have been hitting the ball 20 feet farther, seven percentage points harder, and four MPH faster in his last two starts.
Springer has seven Pro Trends (a slate-high among outfielders unless my boy Rickie Weeks plays) and has three home runs in his last five games. Ranked second and fourth in the CSURAM88 and Bales Models (and first in my model), Springer has as good of a chance as anyone else in the slate to dong.
For more of Brandon’s thoughts on today’s main slate, check out the MLB Daily Fantasy Flex pod.
J.J. Calle: Ian Kinsler, DET, 2B
I follow two rules when crafting lineups:
- Always roster Michael Conforto against righties.
- Play the bobbleheads.
Very little separates Kinsler from other second basemen . . . but today is his bobblehead day, and bobblehead hitters have achieved a +1.4 Plus/Minus on DraftKings since 2014 and a +1.7 Plus/Minus on FanDuel since 2013. On both sites, such batters have met value at least half of the time, and this season 10 of the 14 bobblehead hitters have exceeded value. [Editor’s Note: The editorial staff is about 49 percent sure that you should treat these numbers seriously.]
Batting leadoff, Kinsler has homered in two straight games and is in a lineup currently projected to score 4.9 runs. His advanced stats have been trending in the wrong direction ever since J.D. Martinez replaced Justin Upton as the No. 2 batter, but his 63 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel makes him more palatable.
Phil Hughes, the Twins’ projected starter, is the primary reason to focus on Detroit. Based on his advanced metrics, he really might be the worst starter of the slate. And if catcher Kurt Suzuki starts the game, then Kinsler will be a threat on the base paths, considering that he stole a base off the Hughes-Suzuki battery less than three weeks ago.
Bill Monighetti: Rick Porcello, BOS, SP
Yesterday, I was ready to play Porcello at pitcher — so ready, in fact, that I even wrote a Trend of the Day entry on it. Unfortunately, for Porcello to be a good DFS play, he actually needs to play, and that’s where he fell short yesterday. Today, I’m going to double down and this time feature him as my recommended play of the day.
He is more of a tournament-only play now, since pitching is much stronger today than it was yesterday, but there is still something to Porcello, besides having a surname that sounds like the name of a rare wine.
As I mentioned yesterday, the Royals haven’t been as tough on pitchers this season as they have been in the recent past. They currently rank 22nd in Team wOBA vs. RHP and have been a top-15 DFS matchup for opposing pitchers.
As for Porcello himself, he comes into today’s matchup in good form, with a Batted-ball Distance Differential of -15 feet. Also, even with a Park Factor of 70 for right-handers, Kauffman Stadium becomes even more of a pitcher’s park in cooler weather, with the Plus/Minus jumping up to +2.34 for starting pitchers on FanDuel.
The Kershaw of the Day
Spoiler Alert: Kershaw recommendation follows.
Matthew Freedman: Clayton Kershaw, LAD, SP
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.
