In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? The embodiment of Rumor.
John Daigle: Josh Donaldson, TOR, 3B
Donaldson is a priority for many DFSers any time he faces a lefty, and that is especially true tonight.
First off, his slugging percentage is a whopping .101 greater than that of any other third baseman in tonight’s slate. Furthermore, his Isolated Power (ISO) is also .079 higher than anyone else’s at the position. And, as if you need any more reassurance, he is averaging 0.16 home runs per at-bat more than any other third baseman.
Drew Smyly is a pitcher who normally warrants some caution, and so hopefully the matchup against Smyly will keep Donaldson’s lineup percentage lower than it normally is. It shouldn’t, since Smyly allowed 1.92 more HRs per nine innings to right-handed (as opposed to left-handed) batters just last year. Still, we can hope.
Unlike hope, however, paying for Donaldson tonight is a strategy (and one not worth foregoing).
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations in today’s Slate Breakdown.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Brandon Hopper: Adam Conley, MIA, SP
Considering the ugliness of the slate, I’m surprised that I found a pitcher I like so much. Since I’m a tournament player, I hope that the public is scared off by Conley’s last outing, in which he lasted for only four innings and allowed seven hits and four runs.
Additionally, given that his moneyline is at -110, he’ll likely get overlooked by the FanDuel crowd looking for a safer player with a better chance of picking up the 12-point win at the end of the game. The three big favorites of the day should land a good chunk of ownership.
But Conley has a lot going for him. He strikes out about one batter per inning, which is fifth-best on the slate. He’s also going against Philadelphia, which loves to strike out against lefties, doing so about 30 percent of the time. Our K predictor has Conley at 7.4 strikeouts for the game. You need to pay attention to the K predictor, if you haven’t been doing so.
Conley’s best two pitches are his fastball and changeup. The Phillies don’t hit anything well, but they particularly struggle against fastballs and changeups. Conley is the highest-rated pitcher on both FD and DraftKings in the Bales Model. Regardless of the platform, play him.
For more of Brandon’s thoughts on today’s main slate, check out the MLB Daily Fantasy Flex pod.
Bill Monighetti: Kenta Maeda, LAD, SP
Let’s be honest: Pitching choices are pretty limited today. I do like Rick Porcello against the Royals, but there is a chance that game won’t play due to rain. In any case, there is a noticeable lack of elite arms on tonight’s slate, so in the absence of high strikeout Upside — Adam Conley is the only pitcher with a K Prediction over seven at the moment — I don’t mind going with a guy likely to pick up the win without being excessively damaged in the process.
Today, that pitcher is Maeda, who is supported by a high Vegas Score, as the Dodgers are heavy favorites, while their opponents, the Angels, are projected to score only 3.1 runs. The Angels are currently 21st in overall Team Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against right-handed pitching (.301). They don’t strike out a ton (16 percent of at-bats), but they do play into Maeda’s strength as a groundball pitcher. Once you also factor in Dodger Stadium’s Park Factor of 70 for righties, the Angels seem pretty unlikely to hang a big number on Maeda this evening.
If you squint your eyes, you can find Upside in guys like Smyly and Jose Berrios tonight. But if it’s a high floor that you are after, consider firing up Maeda on FD, where he qualifies for 10 Pro Trends and comes with an 80 percent Bargain Rating.
Check out Bill’s MLB Recent Form Report for information on players likely to regress per our advanced stats.
Matthew Freedman: Yasmany Tomas, ARI, OF
Even my mother (who doesn’t play DFS) is stacking the Diamondbacks tonight against Yankees pitcher Chad Green, who is making his first major league start and has a “we don’t think that you’re actually a pitcher” $4,000 salary on DK.
To stack Arizona in a contrarian way, you might want to consider using Tomas, who’s the No. 6 hitter and thus likely to be relatively overlooked. Additionally, as a righty facing a righty, Tomas has woeful wOBA and ISO Differentials of -0.109 and -0.140. Most DFSers, if they’re smart, will ignore him.
But Tomas has some things going for him. On DK, he is only $3,300 and has an 84 percent Bargain Rating. He’s one of the few outfielders in the slate with as many as 10 Pro Trends. And (per our advanced stats) he has been crushing the ball recently, with a batted-ball distance of 254 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, a hard-hit rate of 62 percent, and Distance, Exit Velocity, and Hard-Hit Differentials that are all trending in the positive direction.
Over the last fantasy month, Tomas has had a nice blend of Consistency and Upside with no Salary Change. The odds that he does well in an Arizona stack are probably higher than the percentage of lineups in which he’ll be rostered.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.