In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
Bryan Mears: Clayton Kershaw, LAD, SP
Tonight’s slate comes down to whether you can stomach the difference between Clayton Kershaw ($13,300 on DraftKings) and the next tier of guys — David Price ($11,100) and Vincent Velasquez ($10,900).
I wrote an article last year about how to deal with a pitcher priced at $14,000 or higher. Kershaw isn’t at that level today, but I think that the ideas in that article still stand. Specifically, I found that pitchers priced at $14,000-plus had a Plus/Minus of +5.52. Kershaw himself had a Plus/Minus of +9.05.
Of course, most of the historical examples were Kershaw. That’s not totally ideal, but it works out in this instance since we’re studying him today. Very few pitchers are ever priced at $13,000 or higher. Those salaries are typically reserved for the most elite pitchers who are A) in top form and/or B) in great matchups. Kershaw doesn’t have an amazing matchup, but he is in great form.
Players rarely get contact on Kershaw, and that’s even more so the case recently, as (per our advanced stats) he has a -3 percent Hard-Hit Differential over the last 15 days. That doesn’t sound like much, but with elite hitters and pitchers even small movements either way are important. Kershaw is expensive tonight. He’s probably worth it.
To learn how weather impacts DFS performance, check out Bryan’s Trend of the Day.
Tyler Buecher: Adam Jones, BAL, OF
Given Clayton Kershaw’s salary and stature as both a viable cash and tournament play, if we’re to use the Dodgers ace then we need to find some affordable players with Upside. We can find that with the Orioles, who are projected to score 5.4 runs. Specifically, Adam Jones offers immense value on FanDuel, where has a 99 percent Bargain Rating and 10 Pro Trends.
Over the past 15 days, Jones has a +12 percent Hard-Hit Differential and a top-12 hard-hit rate of 43 percent. Batting fourth, Jones has recently seen an uptick in exit velocity, with the ball coming off of his bat at 93 miles per hour.
Facing Detroit’s Mike Pelfrey — who owns the worst WHIP and SO/9 on the slate — Jones has a good chance to keep that exit velocity up, as Pelfrey’s average velocity has dipped 2.4 MPH over the past 15 days to just 88.6 MPH. Baltimore has a Vegas Score in the 80th percentile and is seeing at least 80 percent of the early bets, two heavy trends that benefit batters. At only $2,600 on FD, Jones has a very good chance of returning value.
Brandon Hopper: James Shields, SD, SP
Our K Predictor has Shields projected with the slate’s second-highest K mark (8.9), just behind Kershaw’s (11.0). Shields’ opponent, the Brewers, have a high strikeout rate of 30.35 percent. Against right-handed pitching specifically, they strike out the fourth-most among all MLB teams.
The Brewers are a top-10 team at hitting the fastball, but that’s only Shields’ fourth-best pitch and not one that he relies on often. He has more success with his cut fastball, curveball, and changeup, which is why I’m not too worried that his velocity has dropped by 0.8 miles per hour over the last 15 days.
Using our Trends tool, we can see that an MPH decrease between 0.5 and 1.0 hasn’t (historically) resulted in catastrophe when it’s coupled with a strikeout prediction between eight and 10. The count of 24 is low, but it’s tough to argue with a +10.34 Plus/Minus which is nearly double the Plus/Minus for the average pitcher projected to get between eight and 10 strikeouts when recent MPH isn’t factored in.
For a finesse pitcher with a good chance of getting strikeouts, losing a bit off a fastball isn’t as bad as it would be for a hard thrower.
For more on Shields, check out Brandon’s On The Contrary article.
Matthew Freedman: Alex Presley, MIL, OF
I’ve chosen Presley as my play of the day two the last three times that I’ve made a recommendation: 5/5/16 and 5/6/16. In case you don’t remember, he donged in both games — and, by the way, I believe that “dong” can be used as a verb in an MLB DFS context.
He probably won’t dong in this slate, but I still like him a lot.
As was the case when I previously recommended him, Presley is an excellent source of salary relief on DraftKings, where he has a $2,000 salary and a 94 percent Bargain Rating. On top of that, he’s a top-two DK outfielder in both the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
He’s no longer hitting leadoff — it’s not even confirmed yet that he’ll be a starter, so keep an eye out for that (via our Lineups page) — but he should still be able to do some damage given his seven Pro Trends and Milwaukee’s implied Vegas total of 4.6 runs.
Over the last month, Presley has experienced a net Salary Change of zero despite displaying a good mix of Consistency and Upside with a +2.15 Plus/Minus:
As long as he has a minimum salary and is in the Brewers lineup, he should be a consideration for your lineup in both cash games and tournaments.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.
