In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The All-Day Plays
For the degenerates among you [Editor’s Note: And us] who play more than just the main slate.
Bill Monighetti: Chris Davis, BAL, 1B
Let’s build a quick trend. What happens when a pitcher A) has a career fly-ball rate (FB%) exceeding 42 percent and B) faces off against a power hitter with an Isolated Power (ISO) Split above .190? As it turns out, under those circumstances, batters have a +1.00 Plus/Minus on FanDuel scoring. Today, Phil Hughes — with his career FB% of 42.6 percent against lefties — will square off against Chris Davis, owner of a .364 ISO vs. righties.
Although Davis has an unfortunate Park Factor of 19, he has the potential to overcome it. His average batted-ball distance over the past calendar year is 243 feet, which leads all batters on today’s slate who have appeared in 10 or more games. And, although Davis’ advanced stats over the past 15 days are down a bit, so are Phil Hughes’. In recent starts, Hughes has allowed his opponents to hit the ball harder, farther, and higher. [Editor’s Note: Also known as “The Trifecta of Doom.”]
This is a good spot for Davis to get right, and as just the eighth-most expensive first basemen on FanDuel he carries plenty of potential value.
Brandon Hopper: Kevin Pillar, TOR, OF
Here we have a a hot batter (Pillar) facing a premier pitcher (Madison Bumgarner). That’ll be enough to scare away the masses, but not me.
Per our advanced stats, Pillar has a Distance Differential of +41 feet and a Hard-Hit Differential of +19%. Over the past 15 days, his exit velocity has also increased by four miles per hour. Per our Trends tool, batters with similar numbers have a +1.53 Plus/Minus.
Despite these silky numbers, Pillar has experienced a -$1,000 Salary Change on DraftKings from $3,900 to $2,900 in the last four games, which has resulted in a 96 percent Bargain Rating.
Bumgarner is throwing well lately, but he’s only a slight favorite against the Blue Jays. Batting leadoff, Pillar will get plenty of opportunities. With eight Pro Trends (tied for fifth among outfielders), he has a decent chance of capitalizing.
The Main-Slate Plays
For the rest of us.
Tyler Buecher: Starling Marte, PIT, OF
Tonight’s slate offers a bit of a reprieve from high-priced pitching on FanDuel. That price break can help you afford some of the big-time bats for tonight, including Marte, who is on a bit of tear with four multi-hit games in a row. Even with his recent onslaught, Marte sports a 93 percent Bargain Rating, so you’re not paying up for his recent production.
Utilizing our advanced stats, we can uncover part of the reason for Marte’s success. Over the past 15 days, Marte has raised his average batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. All of that is bad news for Cincinnati starting pitcher Alfredo Simon, who is a bottom-five pitcher in terms of both WHIP and strikeouts per nine innings and against whom the Pirates are projected to score 4.5 runs.
Marte owns a strikingly good Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) Differential against righties (0.12), and he has been slugging .491 against them on the year. With solid Consistency at his salary, Marte is a high-Upside means of differentiating your lineups in a slate that features a game at Coors Field.
Mitchell Block: Xander Bogaerts, BOS, SS
Dating back to the start of May, Bogaerts has averaged over 10 DraftKings points per game, good for a +2.19 Plus/Minus over the timeframe. His stellar play has been noted, however, as DK has responded by upping his price to its highest of the season, $4,900. In cash games, the price is definitely a turnoff, as his Bargain Rating on DK is only 29 percent.
In tournaments, though, Bogaerts is intriguing. A full $1,000 more expensive than the next player at the position, Bogaerts is likely to be rostered in a relatively small percentage of lineups, despite his superb matchup today, which I’m not sure could be any better. Eric Surkamp has reemerged from a stint in the minors and will make a spot start against the Red Sox today. Here are some of his numbers prior to his demotion: 1.91 WHIP, 5.59 ERA, 6.76 xFIP and 1.40 HR/9. Surkamp isn’t striking anyone out — his K/9 prior to being demoted was 4.19 — and he struggles with control, as his BB/9 of 5.59 illustrates.
All of these numbers are, shall we say, not good. Factor in Bogaerts’ .412 wOBA against lefties and the way this Red Sox squad is crushing the ball in general right now, and Professor X could be in line for another big day.
Bryan Mears: Noah Syndergaard, NYM, SP
Max Scherzer has a better matchup, WHIP, K/9 rate, predicted strikeouts, and opposing team total than Syndergaard. The reason I prefer the latter? He is nearly $2,000 more expensive on FanDuel.
Yep, you read that correctly. I like the guy who is the costlier, inferior play for one reason: He’s the play in the one way that matters for tournaments — projected ownership.
I wouldn’t blame you for taking Scherzer in all of your cash games. I would actually encourage you to do so, as you must be sensitive to price in cash games. However, Syndergaard is the most intriguing SP in the main slate tonight because A) he’s an elite talent and B) he’s massively overpriced in comparison to the other pitchers. Whenever the first point is true, I don’t mind dealing with the second.
And it isn’t like Thor doesn’t have Upside: The dude throws a baseball on average 97.1 MPH (which, by the way, is a whopping 2.9 MPH faster than Scherzer or any other pitcher’s average in this slate). We have seen him have outstanding, tournament-winning performances against good teams before. Take Opening Day’s 57-point FD outing against the defending champs as an example of that. Scherzer is an outstanding play tonight. Thor is the tournament one.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.